We're crashing? The time to make a stand is soon-ish.

Halfway through March, BTCUSD ended a plummet through major resistances with a huge bounce from 7200 to 9200, but momentum waned as it reached the downtrend channel. It crashed hard, flagging a bit above the 7690 Fib line, before crashing that too. The panic was enough to flash crash Okex while BTCUSD finally found a floor first at 6500 and then 6400 on a retest on April 1st. The retest at 6400 was a fairly epic battle on the orderbooks, with stuff like a real 2200 BTC buy wall at 6500 on Kraken of all places. This gave enough of bounce to make a run at the downtrend channel, but it slowed by 7500 on declining volume as it approached the downtrend channel and it dove down to ~6700 today where it has found support at an emerging bear flag floor.

It's unfortunate that we can't publish on the 1m chart here because there's a lot to say about how recent action has been driven by large whale buys and sells identified on single minutes. I've come to believe that the Bitfinex 1m BTCUSD chart is possibly the most important in crypto, because it gives you signals from whale bread crumbs that aren't captured by any indicator. Right now, I think they imply that the past week or so has been intended as a Wyckoff accumulation pattern within the flag/channel, since the various pumps and dumps have painted a fairly textbook pattern. This would be bullish - it means we've found bottom and the whales are accumulating ahead of a breakout.

Thus, we get our first possible path forward - we start on a bull run pretty much here. A few whale pumps and we make inverse head and shoulders right at the border of a falling wedge. That's a lot of pattern-based momentum. If this is a whale-driven Wyckoff accumulation phase, then we'd expect to see a few pumps to kick this pattern into shape. 6400 could be a local bottom that we don't revisit, with 6700ish making a higher local bottom. Bullish divergence is starting to appear at more of the higher end time charts. There just may not be enough new bears or panic to keep going down (though a whale dump would also engineer us lower).

Our second path forward is a modified version of the first: we retest 6400 and succeed. Here, we meander a bit within the bear flag for a few hours to days without a liftoff towards the falling wedge border, and then the flag starts breaking down. It has two key levels to test in a row - 6400 and 6000. 6400 is the previous local bottom and lines up with the bottom of the uptrend channel from November. It didn't give us enough of a bounce before, but again, we might have exhausted sellers and there's probably little panic before it's breached.

Our final path is then that we break 6400 and 6000 would then become make or break. It is the February bottom and at the point we might breach it we'd also break the falling wedge bottom made by a major downtrend resistance line. It would likely herald an extended 2014-style bear market, because at that point we're making lower highs and lower lows, under moving averages, and under our uptrend channel support. Everyone and their mother probably starts panic selling or shorting and we probably see some whales that have used this 6000-7000 region to accumulate move to unwind those positions. There's a 100% Nov. rally retracement at 5408, but I suspect we will make a rapid succession of bear flags lower to either the 4818 Fib line or even the 4200 bear flag target before we find support that actually stems this much panic. "Capitulation" rather than "panic" is a *long* way off if we break 6000. If 2014 is a guide, it means a bear market that lasts at least most of 2018 with repeated run-ups that make lower highs then crash to lower lows.

I'm long here thinking path 1 or 2 is most likely because I think it's in the best interest of the market makers to take stands that stop the bleeding here. They defended 6400 hard and I think they'll defend 6000+.

I'm an amateur and you definitely shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice.