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1 day: Break down $6,000 support | 1 week: breakdown $5,750 support | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Have been waiting for retest of 12 EMA before thinking we would be in a position to breakdown the major support that has held us up for 2018. Happened yesterday and we wicked off of it hard - this is another reason why I am viewing yesterday’s candle as a shooting star (bearish) instead of an inverted hammer (bullish)/ Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,650 | S: $6,200
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off yesterday’s shooting star candle. What if it turns 30,000 into support on pullback? If not it will probably pull back to 18,000
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0397%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.14% | 26 = -5.38%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.77% (just angled up slightly) | 128 = -14.32%
Volume: Large buying volume from yesterday was unable to push price past $6,600 resistance. Small volume as price re explores yesterdays wick.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick of shooting star/inverted hammer - I am viewing it as the former because we bounced from $6,000 / broke the downtrend and this feels like the end of that move.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud should be strong resistance
TD’ Sequential: G9 on 1h. G3 < G2 on daily.
Visible Range: $6,526 is top of high volume node for 1 month lookback. Breaking through it and quickly pulling back under is very back sign for bulls. POC = $6,359 & and that breaking down would be next step.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.96% | 24h = +1.57% | 1w = -1.00% | 2w = -0.9% | 1m = 1.89%
Bollinger Bands: Approaching top of 4h band. Do not think it can surpass daily MA at $6,978
Trendline:
Daily Trend: Next one would be a retest of the top of the triangle
Fractals: Down = $6,000 | Up = $8,316 | Could someone tell me why up fractal did not print on top of 8/13?
On Balance Volume: Testing resistance / no div’
ADX: +DI just started to angle downward again and ADX is starting to move.
Chaikin Money Flow: Looks like it created a lower high
RSI (30 setting): Looks like it wants to re test 50.
Stoch: %K broke through 20, will %D follow?
Summary: I have often gotten my best entries when the current candle re explores a bearish wick from the day before. That is exactly what we are seeing now. Generally I will set my stop slightly above the top of yesterday’s wick. In this case I would set it above $6,850 resistance. Expected next move to come hard/fast and when you least expect it. I am getting in the car to go to Tone Vays’ seminar in Las Vegas and that is when I least expect/want the move to happen. Bags are packed and stop losses are set!
1 day: Break down $6,000 support | 1 week: breakdown $5,750 support | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Have been waiting for retest of 12 EMA before thinking we would be in a position to breakdown the major support that has held us up for 2018. Happened yesterday and we wicked off of it hard - this is another reason why I am viewing yesterday’s candle as a shooting star (bearish) instead of an inverted hammer (bullish)/ Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,650 | S: $6,200
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off yesterday’s shooting star candle. What if it turns 30,000 into support on pullback? If not it will probably pull back to 18,000
Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0397%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.14% | 26 = -5.38%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.77% (just angled up slightly) | 128 = -14.32%
Volume: Large buying volume from yesterday was unable to push price past $6,600 resistance. Small volume as price re explores yesterdays wick.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316
Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick of shooting star/inverted hammer - I am viewing it as the former because we bounced from $6,000 / broke the downtrend and this feels like the end of that move.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud should be strong resistance
TD’ Sequential: G9 on 1h. G3 < G2 on daily.
Visible Range: $6,526 is top of high volume node for 1 month lookback. Breaking through it and quickly pulling back under is very back sign for bulls. POC = $6,359 & and that breaking down would be next step.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.96% | 24h = +1.57% | 1w = -1.00% | 2w = -0.9% | 1m = 1.89%
Bollinger Bands: Approaching top of 4h band. Do not think it can surpass daily MA at $6,978
Trendline:
Daily Trend: Next one would be a retest of the top of the triangle
Fractals: Down = $6,000 | Up = $8,316 | Could someone tell me why up fractal did not print on top of 8/13?
On Balance Volume: Testing resistance / no div’
ADX: +DI just started to angle downward again and ADX is starting to move.
Chaikin Money Flow: Looks like it created a lower high
RSI (30 setting): Looks like it wants to re test 50.
Stoch: %K broke through 20, will %D follow?
Summary: I have often gotten my best entries when the current candle re explores a bearish wick from the day before. That is exactly what we are seeing now. Generally I will set my stop slightly above the top of yesterday’s wick. In this case I would set it above $6,850 resistance. Expected next move to come hard/fast and when you least expect it. I am getting in the car to go to Tone Vays’ seminar in Las Vegas and that is when I least expect/want the move to happen. Bags are packed and stop losses are set!
Commento:
Daily bear flag with $3,875 target. Wait for confirmation!
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