BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 157)

Full Disclosure: I have been drinking and am well above the legal limit.

Previous analysis/position: Expecting long squeeze to push us down to $7,250 due to long:short ratio with a 30% chance of a rally due to C Clamps on the 1h and 2h Ichimoku Clouds.
Patterns: 1h fits into a Wyckoff Distribution with a throwback, could be getting ready for Re-Distribution. Possible h&s forming if we continue to range between $7,300 - $7,500
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $7,528 S: $7,324
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to form lower highs and lower lows. Surprised that shorts still are not starting to pick up. 62%:38% long:short ratio.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.39% and angling down sharply | 26 = -0.77%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = + 7.04% and angling upward sharply | 128 = -2.29%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677
Candlestick analysis: 12h inverted hammer on top of the 50 MA after a golden cross.
Ichimoku Cloud: Still inside the daily cloud. Support from Kijun-Sen (Tenken-Sen angling downward sharply)
TD’ Sequential: R-5 < R-4 after topping on an R-9. 2nd candle correction after an R-9 on the 12h.
Visible Range: 24 hour point of control = $7,385 | 5d POC = $7,537 | 1m POC = $7,433 *** | 1y POC = $8,161
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.81% | 24h = -1.57% | 1w = -9.09% | 2w = +1.29% | 1m = +14.01%
Bollinger Bands: Below MA on daily and weekly, still above on 3d.
Trendline: Retesting trendline that connects March 5th and May 5th.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: DOWN = $7,202 | UP = $8,281
On Balance Volume: Trending down with price
ADX: +DI just crossed under -DI with the ADX > 25, indicating a reversal in trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Failed to turn 0.15 into support, now trending down w price
RSI (30 setting): Still > 50 on daily and weekly
Stoch: Re entering oversold zones on daily.

Summary: We are now trading below the point of control when looking back 1 month. That means the majority of the volume, or resistance, is above us. If we do get a bounce above that level then I expect it to be brief. A head and shoulders forming on the daily would make a lot of sense. That would give us the chance to cool off from being oversold and it would also allow the bears to eat away at support. I don’t like being a bear (long term hodler) but I will continue to be as long as we are in a bear market. Would say there is a 15% chance we get a bounce to $7,800 - $8,000 and if we do it would provide a great selling opportunity.

Thanks for reading!