🚀 Bitcoin ~ The Elephant in the Room

18 apr 2022

We have been focused on the 3D time frame for macro clarity. BTC remains in a Monthly, Weekly, & 3D uptrend printing a series of higher lows. The 3D Ascending Triangle bull break lacked follow through squeaking over the 38.2% retracement prior to bear dipping to 78.6% static support retracement level of the 3D higher low (37.2K) to the swing 3D higher high (48.2K). This retracement is confluent with lower ascending triangle tend line support. Price needs to bull break the 4h lower high (41.6K) to put the Bulls back in midterm time frame control.

I am patiently waiting for 4h higher low RSI and Cipher B confirmations that the 4h higher low is set prior to averaging down my remaining open long positions. I am hedged a single bull short near the lows in the event of a bear break. Watch 4h 21 EMA dynamic resistance for bearish pressure.

Bull Camp: Bulls bank on price printing a 4h higher low at 78.6% & trendline support and are averaging down open longs. Current candle close price action and RSI are fair. Cipher 4& 8h DBSI are neutral with the potential of a 4h trigger wave printing on Cipher B. Money Flow and VWAP remain bearish. Personally, I am waiting for the 4h to play out longer prior to averaging down. Bulls need to be cautious of an initial 4h higher low to bear flag on the 1h prior to breaking to pivot lower lows.

Bear Camp: Bears have had zero pressure from the bulls since the 48K highs consistently printing 4h lower highs. On most coins simply shorting lower high bull rips into dynamic 200 EMA resistance, such as the 30 min, is a 1-point trade game plan with zero failures since the highs. Bears need to be cautious of a short squeeze off the lows if the bulls can push price over the 41.5K lower high pivot.

If price breaks to 4h pivot lower lows the next place we are taking a look is at the 3D 200 EMA dynamic support and the 3D tertiary higher low 88.6% static support retracement (between 38.7 – 38.4K). In the event of a 3D bear break to lower lows we will be scouting daily oversold conditions for the first time since the monthly higher low print on January 22nd.

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DISCLAIMER: I do NOT offer financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. The content is for educational purposes only. YOU are responsible for your own investment decisions.