BTC with a little jump to the upside (Mean Reversion Study)

Indicators/Strategies: ScalpTool by JustUncleL
ADX and DMI with SMA by FrancoTrading
Chalkin Money Flow- Default as provided by TradingView

Blue Line (200EMA- Medium Term)
Green Line(89 day EMA Fast Term)
Grey Area and the composing red line: Called the PAC (Price Action Channel), composed of two lines (Upper PAC and lower PAC), calculated on the closing price for a chosen length (36 here)
Red line: (36 day EMA of the difference for the Upper PAC line and lower PAC line.
Red and green Arrows: Upper and lower Fractals.
Some Random Trend lines: Cause they make me felt like a cool trader at the time. YOU HAVE DONE IT AS WELL

Also a good time to point out, I have no positions in BTC or any other crypto and my motivation is purely to share my thoughts and learn from the community.

Analysis:
Currently BTC (47394$), is under it's lower line for the PAC (lower PAC value at the time of publish= 50714$) and if Mean Reversion is to be kept in mind, it will soon test the PAC channel back and touch the 36 EMA of the PAC at least (52329$). We could look at the charts and see that it does not matter if BTC is rallying or simply falling down, sooner or later it tests the PAC channel back and hence the mean reversion.

But will BTC cross the channel and head upwards again anytime soon?
Well this is where things get interesting and people get a chance to speculate (guilty myself).
In my analysis I have noticed certain conditions that need to be met before BTC can start rallying again once it has fallen below the PAC channel. The exact opposite holds true as well when BTC is above the PAC channel and wants to break to the downside.

1. Pullback, Consolidation and Rally: People who are professional scalpers tend to use a strategy which involves letting the price fall below the PAC channel and then entering the trade when it tends to mean revert and continue it's overall trend. (Certain condition need to hold for this, I am no expert in scalping and if you're interested I would recommend to look at some strategies/Indicators by 'JustUncleL'. I have found his work to be really impressive and although the strategies are not derived for crypto specifically, they have shown decent results when I back-tested some of them).
For BTC , it first needs to enter the PAC channel, consolidate their and then continue heading upwards.

2. Momentum: The ADX DI indicator is really helpful for this. Whenever BTC rallies or reverts back after it has held a trend for particular days (Heiki-Ashi cancels out the major noise and we can see the trend easily) it does with great momentum (as you can see on the ADX DI indicator). As seen on the charts during summer 2021, when BTC fell to 30k, it did with heavy momentum on the downside and for it to continue its bull run again, it had to shift the momentum back to its side or at least kill the negative momentum it was carrying.
We can see every-time it tested the PAC channel, it took down the negative momentum and then finally was able to break through when the trend was no longer on either side.
The same was true when it was rallying the months before. Every new high BTC made, it dropped its momentum and for the ATH (in April), it exhausted itself and didn't took it long to drop to 30k.
*Please Note: I am taking a little lee away here and comparing the Trend strength with momentum (i am aware they are not the same when it comes to mathematics of indicators but I think you know what I mean by ADX being used for momentum)

3 Money Flow: I am probably stating the obvious but nothing in the markets can rally until the smart money is not behind it and for a successful break on the either side can always be checked by the CMF indicator. All the sussesfull breakouts have CMF pointing in the breakout direction.

To summarize the analysis:
For short term, yes BTC should definitely test the 51-52k range, if nothing in particular pushes it up simply the law of Mean Reversion should.
For Short to Medium Term: It is unlikely that BTC would be able to continue it's rally to 100k like some people point out. If it does, I would keep an eye on the CMF / MFI indicators to check for divergence or approval.

These are purely my views and analysis of what I think of BTC would do in short to medium term.
Thank you.

On a Personal Note:
Long Term View: We live in times when some of the smartest people have bet their life's work on Blockchain to uncover its true potential while some still stand firm on their bets against crypto market and how it is the biggest bubble waiting to explode. Both have their reasons and to some extent make reasonable arguments. I strongly believe that's what makes it important that we should have a more accessible derivatives market for BTC and other cryptos. I am aware that these markets exist but the common retail investor is not a big participant yet. If more people have access to derivatives and are aware the power derivative hold scammers would not get away with making scam coins as short sells not only would keep the price in check but also provide liquidity and reduce volatility for the entire crypto market. THis should in turn also help the bad reputation some Altcoins carry and keep big investors away.
The price of BTC is volatile too but not as much as it was on 2013 or 2018, simply because more people have joined the market. Long term investors coming in has brought more liquidity to the market which has reduced the volatility which should encourage more firm hands to join in, or That's in part I tell myself I want the future to be like :)