Yaroslav_Krasko

You NEVER read Bitcoin Cycles in This Way

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BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
All Things Follow Patterns: Deciphering Bitcoin Through Nature's Lens

Before delving deep, one must grasp a foundational truth: markets, with crypto being no exception, exhibit recurring patterns πŸ”„, much like nature's intricate tapestry. Witness these rhythms in seasonal shifts 🍁, the sun's majestic journey from dawn πŸŒ… to dusk πŸŒ„, and even the emotional ebb and flow we undergo daily πŸ˜ŠπŸ˜”.

While countless individuals navigate the market's turbulent waters, a single trait echoes through every investor: raw emotion πŸ˜¨πŸ˜ƒ. Fear and greed are the primary market drivers πŸ“ˆπŸ“‰. Stark numbers present a sobering reality: 95% of cryptocurrency enthusiasts witness their assets evaporate, leaving a meager 5% standing tall πŸ†. However, mastering the art of reading market sentiments and recognizing the tides of collective joy and despair can be your ticket to the elite circle πŸ₯‡

Unraveling the Cyclical Model πŸ”„

Now that you're familiar with the cyclical model πŸ“Š, it's of paramount importance to dive deep into its intricate details and fathom how this insight can be wielded in the crypto realm πŸͺ™. Let's explore the cycle's various stages.

Below is a depiction of the cyclical model. You might be tempted to dismiss it as just another chart from a mundane tome on markets, trading, and investments πŸ“š. But, hold that thought!
Pause and imprint this graph onto your mind 🧠. The reason? You'll be in for a surprise when you discover the striking resemblance this illustration holds with concrete scenarios we'll unveil later πŸ•΅οΈβ€β™‚οΈ.

Accumulation Phase πŸ“¦

Smart Money πŸ’Ό: In this period, the asset’s value seems stagnant and "unexciting" 🟦. Regular investors and traders, the retail crowd πŸ™β€β™‚οΈπŸ™, tend to step back, paving the way for the "smart money" πŸ’‘πŸ’° (major banks, hedge funds, big players) to seize assets at a bargain.

First Growth Phase πŸ“ˆ

Institutional Investors 🏒: Here, the asset starts its ascent 🌱, yet subtly, not enough to make headlines πŸ“°. The "smart money" persists in purchasing, preparing the terrain for what's next.

Euphoria Phase πŸŽ‰

Public 🌍: Arguably the most electrifying cycle segment πŸš€. As prices soar, retail participants flock 🐦. The media spotlight intensifies πŸŽ₯, newcomers enter buying en masse, further fueling the surge. And the "smart money"? They strategically exit, handing over to the novices.

Capitulation Phase πŸ“‰

Capitulation 🏳️: Then, the downturn sets in. As prices dip, after "smart money" has exited, euphoria turns to dread 😱. Late buyers, who hopped in during the highs, are now in a frenzy, offloading assets. Thus, enters the "capitulation phase."

The pattern? A perennial one, consistent across every market landscape πŸ”„. Grasping this cyclical nature aids in making informed moves – to buy, to sell, or just to hold and watch ⏳.
Bringing Theory to Life: Tangible Scenarios πŸ“šβž‘οΈπŸŒ

Shifting our focus to concrete instances, consider the subsequent graph, which chronicles Bitcoin's entire financial trajectory πŸ“ˆ. This illustration lets us trace its periodic patterns. Conventionally, such a phase stretches over four years: a bullish πŸ“ˆ period enduring 2.5 years and its bearish πŸ“‰ counterpart occupying the next 1.5 years.

Keep in mind, these periods are merely indicative and can oscillate due to a myriad of elements πŸŒͺ️. Still, this template sheds light on prospective oscillations in Bitcoin's valuation.



Next, we're diving deep into each Bitcoin cycle πŸ”„. But first, rewind to the original cyclical model graph. Now, stack up real-world instances against the cyclical model chart πŸ“Š. Spot how the real-world examples mirror the cyclical graph?

The First Bitcoin Cycle 🌱
BTC was crafted on PCs purely for enthusiasts' thrills, sans regulators πŸ‘¨β€πŸ’». Between July '09 and June '11, BTC experienced its premier bullish wave πŸ“ˆ, soaring to $18.5 from mere $0.05, a staggering +64,000% leap!


The Second Bitcoin Cycle πŸ“ˆ
BTC touched its first peak πŸ”οΈ, ushering its maiden bearish phase πŸ“‰. After a steep 93% decline, the bullish vibe quickly resurfaced, and from Nov '11 to Nov '13, BTC rocketed πŸš€ from $2 to $1,240 - a whopping +60,000%!


The Third Bitcoin Cycle 🐻
Another bear market came with a deep 86% cut - BTC plummeted from $1,240 to $167. From Jan '15 to Dec '17, bullish vibes raised the stake to $19,800 πŸ“ˆ, a rise of 11,800%.



The Fourth Bitcoin Cycle ⏳
BTC faced another 84% trimming πŸ“‰. From Dec '18 to Nov '21, the bullish phase propelled BTC to a majestic $69,000 from a modest $3,123, charting a 2,108% ascent.



The Fifth Bitcoin Cycle πŸš€
We stand here, as BTC price dances between $18k- 25K 🩰, setting the stage for the Bitcoin cycle's nascent stages. A bullish tide is on the horizon πŸŒ…, a moment crypto aficionados keenly anticipate.


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