CEP Short Swing Setup – Post-Catalyst Fade in Progress

⚠️ CEP Short Swing Setup – Post-Catalyst Fade in Progress 🚨
📅 Date: June 5, 2025
🎯 Strategy: Tactical short swing trade
🕒 Timeframe: 3–4 weeks
📈 Multi-Model Summary & Bias
Model Bias Entry Target Stop Confidence
DS 🔻 Bearish 39.40 37.90 39.96 70%
LM 🔻 Bearish 40.50 36.45 42.53 68%
GK 🔻 Bearish 39.46 37.90 40.65 65%
GM 🔻 Bearish 39.46 34.92 42.50 65%
CD 🔺 Bullish 39.46 45.00/47.50 36.50 72%

✅ Consensus: 4 out of 5 models lean bearish
🔎 CD offers contrarian mean-reversion long (RSI 18)
🔥 Strong technical sell signals: below EMAs, bearish MACD, high-volume fade
🧱 Major support at $39.00–39.35 needs to break cleanly to confirm short thesis

📊 Key Technical Insights
Trend: Short-term bearish; weekly still bullish

Price Action: Trading below 10/50/200 EMAs

Momentum: Bearish MACD on daily and M30

Volatility: VIX low/neutral → favors tactical shorts

Support Zones: $39.06, $39.25, $37.90

Resistance Zones: $43.79, $44.50, $47.80

Risk Note: RSI oversold on M30 (≈18) → bounce risk

🧾 Recommended Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument CEP
Direction SHORT
Entry Price $39.46
Stop-Loss $42.50
Take-Profit $34.92
Position Size 65 shares (2% risk on $10K)
Holding Period 3–4 weeks
Confidence 65%
Entry Timing Market open

🧠 Trade Logic
Why short?
Profit-taking after financing news → failed follow-through
Below EMAs, bearish momentum, fading volume
Support break could accelerate selling

Why now?
Sitting right on key support. Weak bounce = entry opportunity
VIX low → short entries less volatile
Tight stop = defined risk trade

⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor
⚡️ Bounce off oversold RSI levels (M30 RSI ≈18)

🧱 Support holds at $39.00–$39.35 and reverses

📈 Broader market rebound drags CEP up

🔁 Weekly bullish trend reasserts itself