Demand will go up...
Aggiornato
"Speculators are people with better than average foresight that step in as buyers when there is an excess in supply, store commodity, and then release the commodity when there is a drop in supply (or rise in demand)" (Nicholas Kaldor, economist)
Here, there is the possibility of profiting from having this better than average foresight.
Simply looking at the truth about the climate hoax, intuitively we might think it's not that hard, how does it make someone so special?
Well the majority, the brainwashed herd, as usual, is falling for it. They are the average.
Speculating is more complicated than buying Oil right now and selling in a few years when demand goes up. And doesn't have to be this way too it can be taking quick long trades over and over. Plus demand could not go up for many reasons.
Each time power thirsty control freak politicians tried to stop "greedy speculators from profiting" the result was devastating. As in people starving (but at least mean speculators didn't profit from selling expensive food to hungry people), as in people on the US east coast burning fuel to warm the pool they don't even use since it was so cheap with a forced price while people on the freezing west coast are dying because there is not enough fuel to heat themselves up (and since the prices are fixed there is no profit to be made no trader is going to buy on the east and sell to the west).
Help make the world a better place and get a cut for doing it right.
This is how I'll build this idea:
1- A few facts that go against the climate change narrative
2- What keeps the demand low? Where will all this demand come from?
3- When will prices go up? Where is the bottom?
1- A few facts that go against the climate change narrative
I can't make a big demonstration here it would be a whole book.
I'm just going to keep it simple and list a couple of facts.
Disproving things the conspiracy club says, and showing they are dishonest (or just stupid).
a. Windmills
I started softly, with arguable info. Time to bring the big guns out.
Brace yourselves, an upside down brain moment is coming.
b. Desertification/deforestation/death of plants
****************
Wondered why the CO2 charts go down every summer?
Who would have thought? Increasing the levels of plant food in the air makes plant grow bigger and multiply more.
Not only they get more food to eat (which is around all time low for the planet more on that later), but also more water, as they do not need to open up as much to catch what little co2 is available, they retain more water.
Bet you never heard of this:
nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth
The Sahel too is getting greener.
****************
c. Polar bears & Walrusses
d. Too much co2 for earth to handle
All time low...
e. Earth cannot survive rising temperatures
Do people actually believe those comical claims?
I'm pissing myself when I look at the actual data and then see moronic clowns like Al Gore act all serious and tell every one to repent or the world is going to end soon.
Oh by the way, remember, we only have 10 years left, just like 10 years ago we only had 10 years left, and 20 years ago too we only had 10 years left honk honk.
And millions of sheep in the street demonstrating to "save the planet". I just cringe. All I see are gullible sheep that didn't bother looking at the facts. Same old, same old...
f. Rising temperatures are due to rising co2 levels.
Looking at the co2 levels and temperature we can notice periods where co2 is very high and temperature very low, and periods of millions of years with low co2 and high temperature. This does not mean it does not have some impact of course.
But it is yet another fact that puts the narrative into question.
Propagators of the climate hoax are so dishonest, they draw charts to make them look as correlated as possible.
Let's look at data since 1880:
Which one looks more correlated...
g. Firing "deniers" and rewarding alarmists
Plenty of examples of this you can find. Most academic that dare to speak up are retired or close to retirement and have nothing to lose.
Ah also, science in general has a "replication" problem at the moment. This means herd mentality.
It has always existed (the person that discovered tectonic plates was openly ridiculed when he presented his findings)
But from what I heard it got bigger today.
h. 97% of climate scientists agree
This comes from:
- Some dude with 0 background, that runs an alarmist blog, did a google research and he says he found 97% of papers in the results that were mentionning climate change were not arguing about something or agreeing with certain things (I kid you not that's it)
- A poll sent to scientists asked them "do you think temperatures have been rising since 1900" and "do you think humans have produced co2". Or some insane questions like this, something similar. Of course every one answered yes!
THIS. THIS is what they base their assumption on. THIS is what they use to convince people that every scientist agrees with the WHOLE narrative and toxic marxist ideas.
They just keep lying, it's so disgusting. Lies lies more lies. It never ends. "But it's for a good cause" is what they are thinking.
i. Wildfires are increasing.
The chart climate clowns show you:
The chart they don't want you to see:
It's not all! Ready for the ultimate pun?
j. Sea level worrying rise
In the past 100 years sea levels have rising 10 inches! Very worrying! Soon we will all be flooded!
I could go on, there is so much on this. I still haven't find 1 claim that was some sort of lie.
2- What keeps the demand low? Where will all this demand come from?
Something that hit the price hard was discovering Saudi Arabia had massive reserves.
But what reasons would there be for demand to go up? I'll try covering the main reason, without going too much into details.
a. Cars
In NA EU JP there are about 500 to 800 cars per person.
China is at 180 cars/person (and on an uptrend), India is at 22, uptrend too.
Almost 3 billion people live there.
x Electric cars won't replace fuel cars, and even if they did the electricity would have to come from somewhere...
It would actually use up more fossil fuels with electric cars.
"Visionaries" have been claiming electric cars would take over oil cars for 100 years. Actually probably ever since far more efficient fuel cars replaced electric cars. You can go and find headlines from 1950 with "electric cars are the future".
b. Meat consumption.
It's going to rise. In china it is rising. It requires energy. Simple.
c. Earth population.
Oil Coal Gas supply = constant.
Earth population = predicted to keep rising.
Supply constant, demand up. No brainer.
d. Africa.
1.3 billion (and rising rapidely) people live in Africa.
Nigeria alone is home to 200 million.
When African nations stop having such toxic regulations and become more business friendly, and/or realise the climate change narrative is a hoax (they started questionning europe and complaining about not being allowed to have their own industrial revolution like europe did), their energy consumption is going to go 100 fold.
With the internet everywhere now, every one has access to the truth if they desire (even with google hiding results some people can find out the truth and spread the word)
===> So in conclusion, with supply remaining constant, or perhaps making small improvements, and demand being multiplied (1 billion people in the west at peak consumption, 3 billion in SEA at mid consumption and 1.5 billion in Africa soon more at very low consumption), we can guesstimate that demand will be multiplied by 2, 3, 5, maybe even more.
It is also possible that countries invest heavilly in hydroelectricity and nuclear, which are great, and we won't run out of those. But it is very doubtful that there will be so much of those that it will counter the massive rise in demand of the next decades.
e. Reserves are not infinite.
I don't know how much we have left. Probably the "only 70 years left" are lies. So I'll skip this point.
3- When will prices go up? Where is the bottom?
Who knows?
At some point, there should be an uptrend.
When some new regulations hit, big laws affecting hundreds of millions of people, maybe Congo started a plan to build 100 power plants, or China & India dropped of the Paris accord scam (they promised they would keep raising their emissions at the same rate they already had), with the intention of sending their fossil fuel usage up the roof, etc, then, the price of affected energy sources can go spiking +15% in a day as reaction to the news.
Right now alarmist are doing their best to push the price down but I don't really see big sudden moves down happening.
Will be riskier to short than buy imo.
Seems logical prices will stagnate or drop for now, but the bears really are doing everything they can (lie) to keep prices low without that much success, eventually the forces of demand from Asia will take over and prices will trend up.
Recently (since 2007) there have been big advancements in fracking technology, which has helped lower prices. This is "short term", it drops the price during the short term, but the long term underlying realities are still present, so there was a surge in supply, and its getting more constant now, with demand slowly creeping up.
Once Africa joins the party, or even if India accelerates their development, demand will go boom boom.
And one has to wonder, how much can extraction tech advance? At some point there are physical limits no?
More research is needed, maybe oil exporters have 10 times the production capacity they are using now.
But this is enough for this idea.
Lol maybe someone will make a scanner that sees oil and we'll see the whole Arabia peninsula covered in several kilometers deep reserves of Oil and every one will feel their head spin watching this.
Just keep an eye on what's happening. We'll see it progressively develop, and there will be plenty of buying opportunities.
Also, there are going to be investment opportunities... In energy companies, in Africa perhaps...
Here, there is the possibility of profiting from having this better than average foresight.
Simply looking at the truth about the climate hoax, intuitively we might think it's not that hard, how does it make someone so special?
Well the majority, the brainwashed herd, as usual, is falling for it. They are the average.
Speculating is more complicated than buying Oil right now and selling in a few years when demand goes up. And doesn't have to be this way too it can be taking quick long trades over and over. Plus demand could not go up for many reasons.
Each time power thirsty control freak politicians tried to stop "greedy speculators from profiting" the result was devastating. As in people starving (but at least mean speculators didn't profit from selling expensive food to hungry people), as in people on the US east coast burning fuel to warm the pool they don't even use since it was so cheap with a forced price while people on the freezing west coast are dying because there is not enough fuel to heat themselves up (and since the prices are fixed there is no profit to be made no trader is going to buy on the east and sell to the west).
Help make the world a better place and get a cut for doing it right.
This is how I'll build this idea:
1- A few facts that go against the climate change narrative
2- What keeps the demand low? Where will all this demand come from?
3- When will prices go up? Where is the bottom?
1- A few facts that go against the climate change narrative
I can't make a big demonstration here it would be a whole book.
I'm just going to keep it simple and list a couple of facts.
Disproving things the conspiracy club says, and showing they are dishonest (or just stupid).
a. Windmills
I started softly, with arguable info. Time to bring the big guns out.
Brace yourselves, an upside down brain moment is coming.
b. Desertification/deforestation/death of plants
****************
Wondered why the CO2 charts go down every summer?
Who would have thought? Increasing the levels of plant food in the air makes plant grow bigger and multiply more.
Not only they get more food to eat (which is around all time low for the planet more on that later), but also more water, as they do not need to open up as much to catch what little co2 is available, they retain more water.
Bet you never heard of this:
nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth
The Sahel too is getting greener.
****************
c. Polar bears & Walrusses
d. Too much co2 for earth to handle
All time low...
e. Earth cannot survive rising temperatures
Do people actually believe those comical claims?
I'm pissing myself when I look at the actual data and then see moronic clowns like Al Gore act all serious and tell every one to repent or the world is going to end soon.
Oh by the way, remember, we only have 10 years left, just like 10 years ago we only had 10 years left, and 20 years ago too we only had 10 years left honk honk.
And millions of sheep in the street demonstrating to "save the planet". I just cringe. All I see are gullible sheep that didn't bother looking at the facts. Same old, same old...
f. Rising temperatures are due to rising co2 levels.
Looking at the co2 levels and temperature we can notice periods where co2 is very high and temperature very low, and periods of millions of years with low co2 and high temperature. This does not mean it does not have some impact of course.
But it is yet another fact that puts the narrative into question.
Propagators of the climate hoax are so dishonest, they draw charts to make them look as correlated as possible.
Let's look at data since 1880:
Which one looks more correlated...
g. Firing "deniers" and rewarding alarmists
Plenty of examples of this you can find. Most academic that dare to speak up are retired or close to retirement and have nothing to lose.
Ah also, science in general has a "replication" problem at the moment. This means herd mentality.
It has always existed (the person that discovered tectonic plates was openly ridiculed when he presented his findings)
But from what I heard it got bigger today.
h. 97% of climate scientists agree
This comes from:
- Some dude with 0 background, that runs an alarmist blog, did a google research and he says he found 97% of papers in the results that were mentionning climate change were not arguing about something or agreeing with certain things (I kid you not that's it)
- A poll sent to scientists asked them "do you think temperatures have been rising since 1900" and "do you think humans have produced co2". Or some insane questions like this, something similar. Of course every one answered yes!
THIS. THIS is what they base their assumption on. THIS is what they use to convince people that every scientist agrees with the WHOLE narrative and toxic marxist ideas.
They just keep lying, it's so disgusting. Lies lies more lies. It never ends. "But it's for a good cause" is what they are thinking.
i. Wildfires are increasing.
The chart climate clowns show you:
The chart they don't want you to see:
It's not all! Ready for the ultimate pun?
j. Sea level worrying rise
In the past 100 years sea levels have rising 10 inches! Very worrying! Soon we will all be flooded!
I could go on, there is so much on this. I still haven't find 1 claim that was some sort of lie.
2- What keeps the demand low? Where will all this demand come from?
Something that hit the price hard was discovering Saudi Arabia had massive reserves.
But what reasons would there be for demand to go up? I'll try covering the main reason, without going too much into details.
a. Cars
In NA EU JP there are about 500 to 800 cars per person.
China is at 180 cars/person (and on an uptrend), India is at 22, uptrend too.
Almost 3 billion people live there.
x Electric cars won't replace fuel cars, and even if they did the electricity would have to come from somewhere...
It would actually use up more fossil fuels with electric cars.
"Visionaries" have been claiming electric cars would take over oil cars for 100 years. Actually probably ever since far more efficient fuel cars replaced electric cars. You can go and find headlines from 1950 with "electric cars are the future".
b. Meat consumption.
It's going to rise. In china it is rising. It requires energy. Simple.
c. Earth population.
Oil Coal Gas supply = constant.
Earth population = predicted to keep rising.
Supply constant, demand up. No brainer.
d. Africa.
1.3 billion (and rising rapidely) people live in Africa.
Nigeria alone is home to 200 million.
When African nations stop having such toxic regulations and become more business friendly, and/or realise the climate change narrative is a hoax (they started questionning europe and complaining about not being allowed to have their own industrial revolution like europe did), their energy consumption is going to go 100 fold.
With the internet everywhere now, every one has access to the truth if they desire (even with google hiding results some people can find out the truth and spread the word)
===> So in conclusion, with supply remaining constant, or perhaps making small improvements, and demand being multiplied (1 billion people in the west at peak consumption, 3 billion in SEA at mid consumption and 1.5 billion in Africa soon more at very low consumption), we can guesstimate that demand will be multiplied by 2, 3, 5, maybe even more.
It is also possible that countries invest heavilly in hydroelectricity and nuclear, which are great, and we won't run out of those. But it is very doubtful that there will be so much of those that it will counter the massive rise in demand of the next decades.
e. Reserves are not infinite.
I don't know how much we have left. Probably the "only 70 years left" are lies. So I'll skip this point.
3- When will prices go up? Where is the bottom?
Who knows?
At some point, there should be an uptrend.
When some new regulations hit, big laws affecting hundreds of millions of people, maybe Congo started a plan to build 100 power plants, or China & India dropped of the Paris accord scam (they promised they would keep raising their emissions at the same rate they already had), with the intention of sending their fossil fuel usage up the roof, etc, then, the price of affected energy sources can go spiking +15% in a day as reaction to the news.
Right now alarmist are doing their best to push the price down but I don't really see big sudden moves down happening.
Will be riskier to short than buy imo.
Seems logical prices will stagnate or drop for now, but the bears really are doing everything they can (lie) to keep prices low without that much success, eventually the forces of demand from Asia will take over and prices will trend up.
Recently (since 2007) there have been big advancements in fracking technology, which has helped lower prices. This is "short term", it drops the price during the short term, but the long term underlying realities are still present, so there was a surge in supply, and its getting more constant now, with demand slowly creeping up.
Once Africa joins the party, or even if India accelerates their development, demand will go boom boom.
And one has to wonder, how much can extraction tech advance? At some point there are physical limits no?
More research is needed, maybe oil exporters have 10 times the production capacity they are using now.
But this is enough for this idea.
Lol maybe someone will make a scanner that sees oil and we'll see the whole Arabia peninsula covered in several kilometers deep reserves of Oil and every one will feel their head spin watching this.
Just keep an eye on what's happening. We'll see it progressively develop, and there will be plenty of buying opportunities.
Also, there are going to be investment opportunities... In energy companies, in Africa perhaps...
Nota
I just want to add... CO2 has solved world hunger. You read right.coordinationrurale.fr/images/sections/13-10-21_Craig_Idso-The_positive_externalities_of_carbon_dioxide_monetary_benefits_on_food_production.pdf
For the 50-year period 1961-2011 CO2 had a monetary benefit for rice of 579 billion usd.
"Table 3. The total monetary benefit of Earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on each of the forty-five crops listed in Table 1 for the 50-year period 1961-2011. Values are in constant 2004-2006 U.S. dollars."
==> Sum of all crops = 3.17 Trillion dollars.
Hello? That's huge. So first the benefit of using cheap dense energy sources and even their emissions have a benefit.
Deaths due to climate are at record lows, poverty at record lows, hunger at record lows.
This is great!
Humanity has come forward so much. So much wealth has been created from global trade and innovations.
And the benefits keep going up with CO2:
I just went outside, little sun, cloudy weather. Yet, after all the rain, I saw plants every where, very green (I live in a farm area).
There is almost nothing greater than seing thick succulent plants.
And there is nothing more depressing than seing a cold empty place with dried up plants.
Everything is just so positive! And those mentally ill pessimism thirsty lunatics want to ruin everything, reverse all the progress humanity has made.
They're addicted to bad news on tv, in magazines, they are addicted to complaining.
And the puppet masters are profitting from their nature, pushing them towards listening to pessimism, as well as using the fact they are quite gullible.
I am super bullish on fossil fuel, co2 emissions, and wealth and greenness in the world.
An human population growth is slowing down dramatically. Almost every single species that went extinct was from an island, and disappeared after man introduced a predator or competitor (rats often).
Endangered species best hope is more co2!
==> More plants = more habitat
==> More wealth = human population stops growing (and taking up animal habitat)
==> More wealth = goodbye poaching
Plants everywhere! Wildlife plentiful!
We need more CO2.
Right now I am pessimistic on the stock market in the short term (few years), politics in the US & europe, crypto (that's a good thing thought).
I'm not really pessimistic I look at the facts and make a logical conclusion. Not opinion.
But looking a the big picture, over the long term, it's astonishing, even paralysing, how much progress was made, and how better things have gotten.
Don't be a pessimist.
And if you want to make it in this business, above all else, don't be gullible.
Nota
Step 1: BeliefStep 2: Doubts
Step 3: Looking at the facts
Step 4: Outrage
Step 5: Head starts spinning
The steps are the same for all of us.
Most people are still stuck at step 1.
Scientists can't speak up against the lies or they get intimidated.
Just try telling the truth to a brainwashed believer and see how violent the reaction is.
I think the trend is reversing more and more people are learning the truth.
We are going to have to use renewable energies reserves won't last forever.
There might be a bubble here.
Also it's a few days until Aramco goes public.
There are so many facts, but this 1 is just too much... It's traumatizing...
How can anyone fall for this kind of nonsense? You don't even need to be able to read you can still see the words are different idk man...
Nota
Coal consumption in the US will drop, they are going for Natural Gas instead.Climate lunatics should be happy :)
finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-output-demand-181746053.html?.tsrc=rss
Logic isn't their forte so I believe they will complain about this "Oh no! The US is burning more gas and polluting mother earth with what what plant breathe"
Climate lunatics: If temperatures go up and ice melts it will release 100 ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere and kill us all!
Also Climate lunatics: Aha! If you look at the last 800,000 years you can see that temperature peaks (therefore when ice melted) were accompanied by an increase of 100 ppm of CO2! Clear correlation. CO2 makes the temperature go up.
XD How does anyone fall for this?
Trade attivo
20 bucks a barrel I'm in. If it drops more I'll buy more. This is not my usual 1-3 weeks trade, I'm going long term here, might be years. Using a seperate broker I don't like mixing it all up.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.