China impact on oil price - 2020 Forecast
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Do you know what are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2018?
China: US$239.2 billion (20.2% of total crude oil imports)
United States: $163.1 billion (13.8%)
India: $114.5 billion (9.7%)
Japan: $80.6 billion (6.8%)
South Korea: $80.4 billion (6.8%)
Netherlands: $48.8 billion (4.1%)
Germany: $45.1 billion (3.8%)
Spain: $34.2 billion (2.9%)
Italy: $32.6 billion (2.8%)
France: $28.5 billion (2.4%)
Thailand: $28.4 billion (2.4%)
Singapore: $28 billion (2.4%)
United Kingdom: $26 billion (2.2%)
Taiwan: $23.4 billion (2%)
Belgium: $19.5 billion (1.7%)
Now, these data are related to 2018, and it's easy to understand how the first four countries have a great impact on oil price, and how China could influence oil price (that, at this point, is influenced by China's economic development).
In 2019, China broke records for crude oil imports, importing more crude oil than the U.S. did at its peak.
We all know that oil price is affected by high volatility (I am a supporter of the "Rollercoaster Theory" XD). However, oil price increased thanks to increasing China's demand (one of the most important factors), combined with scarcity from the suppliers.
Despite this, there is a high risk that China's oil demand could halve this year (2020) generating a lower global oil demand for about $100 billion. If supply is maintained at the same levels, I will expect oil to be cheaper, at least in the first half of 2020.
From a technical point of view, the broke of the $57.11 support could realize the beginning of an important downtrend. If China confirms this information, traders will not be late to open their short positions.
Investing Fellow
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Do you know what are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2018?
China: US$239.2 billion (20.2% of total crude oil imports)
United States: $163.1 billion (13.8%)
India: $114.5 billion (9.7%)
Japan: $80.6 billion (6.8%)
South Korea: $80.4 billion (6.8%)
Netherlands: $48.8 billion (4.1%)
Germany: $45.1 billion (3.8%)
Spain: $34.2 billion (2.9%)
Italy: $32.6 billion (2.8%)
France: $28.5 billion (2.4%)
Thailand: $28.4 billion (2.4%)
Singapore: $28 billion (2.4%)
United Kingdom: $26 billion (2.2%)
Taiwan: $23.4 billion (2%)
Belgium: $19.5 billion (1.7%)
Now, these data are related to 2018, and it's easy to understand how the first four countries have a great impact on oil price, and how China could influence oil price (that, at this point, is influenced by China's economic development).
In 2019, China broke records for crude oil imports, importing more crude oil than the U.S. did at its peak.
We all know that oil price is affected by high volatility (I am a supporter of the "Rollercoaster Theory" XD). However, oil price increased thanks to increasing China's demand (one of the most important factors), combined with scarcity from the suppliers.
Despite this, there is a high risk that China's oil demand could halve this year (2020) generating a lower global oil demand for about $100 billion. If supply is maintained at the same levels, I will expect oil to be cheaper, at least in the first half of 2020.
From a technical point of view, the broke of the $57.11 support could realize the beginning of an important downtrend. If China confirms this information, traders will not be late to open their short positions.
Investing Fellow
Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
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