#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Big bull wedge or ascending triangle (does not matter which way you see it, both are correct) on the daily chart and we are in the middle of it. I do have a heavy bearish bias for dax but since we only printed 2 bear bars for the past 11 trading days, it’s not useful to be bearish. I do think it’s more likely we see 20100 and the top is in but I don’t expect US indexes to go down much more next week, so having a bearish bias might not be the most useful thing. We can’t expect the bull trend line to break on the next hit, given the recent bullishness, so my base assumption is a week inside the triangle and more chop.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range.
key levels: small range for next week is 20000 - 20500 and big range for Q1 is 19400 - 20500
bull case: Bulls are still in control but have only seen rejections above 20400. They probably want to buy closer to the bull trend line and daily ema before they try another run at the ath 20522. We are close enough to it, that it’s possible we make another ath but the upside is most likely very limited. Bulls got their retest of the ath and made a lower high, all bullish targets are met and the retest-gods are pleased. Market is free to do whatever.
Invalidation is below 19600.
bear case: Bears kept shorting new highs and made money but they have not going much for them until they can break below the current bull wedge/triangle. As much as I want this to crash to 19000, bears are weak. Best outcome for next week would be if we stay below 20400 and close the week at or below 20000.
Invalidation is above 20550.
short term: Neutral. No interest in buying this and will continue to scale in and out of shorts. I would like to see 20000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: Continuing with scaling in and out of shorts. Currently holding a position with entry 20424 on futures (135 points above xetra).
chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
comment: Neutral. Big bull wedge or ascending triangle (does not matter which way you see it, both are correct) on the daily chart and we are in the middle of it. I do have a heavy bearish bias for dax but since we only printed 2 bear bars for the past 11 trading days, it’s not useful to be bearish. I do think it’s more likely we see 20100 and the top is in but I don’t expect US indexes to go down much more next week, so having a bearish bias might not be the most useful thing. We can’t expect the bull trend line to break on the next hit, given the recent bullishness, so my base assumption is a week inside the triangle and more chop.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range.
key levels: small range for next week is 20000 - 20500 and big range for Q1 is 19400 - 20500
bull case: Bulls are still in control but have only seen rejections above 20400. They probably want to buy closer to the bull trend line and daily ema before they try another run at the ath 20522. We are close enough to it, that it’s possible we make another ath but the upside is most likely very limited. Bulls got their retest of the ath and made a lower high, all bullish targets are met and the retest-gods are pleased. Market is free to do whatever.
Invalidation is below 19600.
bear case: Bears kept shorting new highs and made money but they have not going much for them until they can break below the current bull wedge/triangle. As much as I want this to crash to 19000, bears are weak. Best outcome for next week would be if we stay below 20400 and close the week at or below 20000.
Invalidation is above 20550.
short term: Neutral. No interest in buying this and will continue to scale in and out of shorts. I would like to see 20000 next week.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: Continuing with scaling in and out of shorts. Currently holding a position with entry 20424 on futures (135 points above xetra).
chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
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