Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates in the next two
Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. market economist at Morgan Stanley, said the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June 2024, then in September, and by 25 basis points in every meeting after the fourth quarter. will include a rate cut, reducing the key interest rate by 2.375% by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said the first rate cut of 25 basis points would occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by a total of 175 basis point rate cuts each quarter until mid-2026, bringing rates from 3.5% to 3.75%. I expect to return.
Goldman Sachs' forecast is similar to the Fed's, with two 25 basis point rate cuts next year, bringing the key rate to 3.9% at the end of 2025. Board members from several regions and the Fed president are scheduled to update their forecasts at a meeting next month.
Morgan Stanley believes the economic downturn necessitates further monetary easing, even if a recession has not yet occurred. They expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.3% in 2025, compared to the Fed's forecast of 4.1%. Growth and inflation will also be slower than authorities expected.
Below are Morgan Stanley's predictions.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said the first rate cut of 25 basis points would occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by a total of 175 basis point rate cuts each quarter until mid-2026, bringing rates from 3.5% to 3.75%. I expect to return.
Goldman Sachs' forecast is similar to the Fed's, with two 25 basis point rate cuts next year, bringing the key rate to 3.9% at the end of 2025. Board members from several regions and the Fed president are scheduled to update their forecasts at a meeting next month.
Morgan Stanley believes the economic downturn necessitates further monetary easing, even if a recession has not yet occurred. They expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.3% in 2025, compared to the Fed's forecast of 4.1%. Growth and inflation will also be slower than authorities expected.
Below are Morgan Stanley's predictions.
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