DXY $Index Cup & Handle Pattern H2 Chart Target 94.40(23.6%Fib.)

7 ott 2020

DXY
Update for DXY...After "No Stimulus 'til after Election" triggers market to buy INDEX(DXY).

Previously, as linked ideas, I had called for a DXY bounce at beginning of September. DXY proceeded to bounce from its 2011 Long Term upwards trendline, retracing to the 23.6% Fibonacci level($94.40) of the March to September drawdown. From there I forecasted that DXY would come back to test the 14% Fib. area and the local trendline(blue dotted upward sloping). The news of no stimulus conveniently triggered "Risk-Off", subsequently turning the market to the safety of US Dollars(DXY).

On the 2-Hour Chart I see a cup & handle formation. The handle retracement looks complete at 50% Fibonacci retracement, subsequently reclaiming the(blue dotted) upward trendline.
The target for the measured move is back to the 23.6% Fib. area of $94.40....

Again, I maintain my stance regarding the DXY as I will copy paste my previously published analysis statement:
Oct 1
INDEX:DXY
I had been calling for DXY to retrace after reaching the 23.6%($94. 40 ) back to local trendline and 14% Fib.
The DXY pulled back to $93.53, just shy of the 14%, as well as the local trendline(blue dotted line).
Now we find DXY regaining its corrective momentum to the upside.
I still contend that the 138.2%($95.39) Fibonacci extension of correction is in play, and perhaps the 38.2% Retracement ($96.04)!
Perhaps the final corrective wave(call it "C" or "Y") will end in a 5 wave diagonal, not impulse?

To reiterate;
I believe DXY is following a similar trend as in 2016 during the election period in the USA! In 2016 INDEX was able to rally through the election into early January, 2017. It was at that point that the DXY began to breakdown for one year. During this time Bitcoin (& Crypto) inversely correlated, and of course was able to rally to its ATH as the INDEX found a bottom in January, 2018. From there the Dollar has rallied up until March of this year(2020), at which point the Dollar again broke down, and has found support on its Long Term trendline. I believe a similar pattern will play out, give or take a month or three, and DXY will eventually break below the 2011 trendline. Let's see how it all goes....

7 ott 2020

Nota

Cup & Handle invalidated after falling below 50% Fib. Level.

DXY may infact continue to find strength, just not via the Cup Handle H2 chart pattern. Rather, perhaps an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern is emerging?
Still developing...

7 ott 2020

Nota

I had not checked the news before invalidating the Cup & Handle. Now I see:

Holy Stimulus Flip Flop Tweet Takes Wind, out of sails, or should I say; Drains the cup!
Risk on again?
Is this an indication of how choppy markets might be for the coming weeks or months?