S&P 500 Implied Volatility ($50) + Gravity Points = Trading Plan
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Another contraction. Last week = $65. Next week's Expected Move is $50. I don't like it. I don't have to like it. Why do I care? Historical volatility is still outpacing implied volatility. $50 is what we moved in 1 trading sessions last week and right now that same move is what's priced in right now spread over the whole week. I didn't like last week's $65 Expected Move and you can see that we moved well outside of it before ultimately coming back into it on Friday which creates opportunity for us if it moves significantly outside of the $50 range to expect it to come back inside the range.
There's a tremendous amount going on right now. Everyone got caught up with the elections and what-not last week, but it was also the first week, if you were paying attention, that we now have HARD evidence that we are seeing a slowdown, specifically a slowdown in your Wealth-Effect companies. (TIF / Ferrari / Marriot / Wynn)
Do we point fingers at the FED? At this point who cares. We know that they're pulling the rug out from under us. We should just simply expect more volatility.
And it is clearly and distinctively underway by the fact that 45% of companies in the S&P 500 are now in bear market territory.
This is going to be absolutely brutal for retail clientele. Why? Because the market is excellent at bringing people out of the woodwork and pulling their capital back into the marketplace. Who do you think got suckered into this Rip-Your-Face-Off move to the upside over the last 2 weeks? Institutions are selling their shares to Retail right now.
Algorithms are going to systematically and over time dismantle individual sectors and the market at large.*
*cough *cough XHB/EEM/SMH
There's so much opportunity out there right now.
Here is last week's post:
There's a tremendous amount going on right now. Everyone got caught up with the elections and what-not last week, but it was also the first week, if you were paying attention, that we now have HARD evidence that we are seeing a slowdown, specifically a slowdown in your Wealth-Effect companies. (TIF / Ferrari / Marriot / Wynn)
Do we point fingers at the FED? At this point who cares. We know that they're pulling the rug out from under us. We should just simply expect more volatility.
And it is clearly and distinctively underway by the fact that 45% of companies in the S&P 500 are now in bear market territory.
This is going to be absolutely brutal for retail clientele. Why? Because the market is excellent at bringing people out of the woodwork and pulling their capital back into the marketplace. Who do you think got suckered into this Rip-Your-Face-Off move to the upside over the last 2 weeks? Institutions are selling their shares to Retail right now.
Algorithms are going to systematically and over time dismantle individual sectors and the market at large.*
*cough *cough XHB/EEM/SMH
There's so much opportunity out there right now.
Here is last week's post:
Nota
Chart Update: Gravity Point Hard was hitNota
Is anybody using this? Awesome stuff today
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