ES: will the bottom half of the year see turmoil?

31 mar

So far, S&P 500 is playing out the way it should. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 should be nearly complete. It can top out here or can hit 5400- 5450 before the minute wave 4 correction. End of April and early May should see the minor degree wave 4 correction that could bring a decent 5% to 7% downturn. But, the big one could be in the bottom half of the year. depending on where things get topped out for primary wave 3, we could see a near recession or even a slight recession style 18% to 25% downturn that could last up to a year. It will be really interesting to see how rate cuts play into the narrative and how the crypto markets react during this downturn. If we are indeed in a massive ending diagonal pattern to end the super cycle for S&P 500, then we should see another all time high after the big correction that could take things to 7000 to 7200 before heading into the lost decade. My guess is late 2026. We shall see....