High pullback probability environment, 60-80% prob. for 5% gain

We have just saw a clear daily trend reversal rejection bar and price move on Friday 21st of February the same as for S&P and the Dow Jones whether moves on Dow Jones were more powerfull.

Looking at the charts the price levels which were respected all the time from 2020 by the market are related to the Covid 2020 market crash move down and it is part of the retracements, recovery and over-extension from these levels. We had a nice 5 strong moves up with the extension of leg 3 Fibbo move and 5 from 5362 levels.

What we can see now is the rejection of 3.272 Fibbo level commonly used as the target price when 2.618 is expected. I see this as an overextended move with 20-40% probability of breaking up. There might be 60-80% chance of the pullback. There are very nice RSI and MACD weekly divergences.

Targets depended on the price action could be in 5750-5300 and we still may stay in strong uptrend. If we break below 5350 levels the follow through to 4900 levels might be in place and must be holded. If failed, maybe that is just all and we might see 2020 lows in years to come.

Lot of work needs to be done and the pullback can be interesting for weeks to come.

For now, 60-80% probability to reach 5700 levels. *Daily 200 + Weekly 50*

Short SPY 6100, 6000 in put options.