ES Weekly Levels (Dec 18-22)

The market broke out of its three-week consolidation above the July high following dovish comments from Powell and the possibility of three rate cuts next year. The ES and NQ are now only 5% off all-time highs and have recovered almost all their losses from 2022. The rally has broadened as small and mid-caps played catch-up into the end of the year, posting strong weekly gains. All-time highs are now a possibility heading into the end of the year.

SUMMARY

• ES finished the 7th week with a gains up 2.35 % after trading in a range of 133 pts.
  
• ES successfully broke the July high & starts the week just below 1.13 Fib X resistance.
  
• ES up 14% since Oct low and within 5% of ATH
  
• SPX 2% from ATH
  
• First resistance is the 1.13 Fib X (4813)
  
• First support is the July 27th high.(4734)
  
• Above 1.13 Fib X resistance the upside targets are the Mar 29th high, 1.272 X and the ATH
  
• Below July 27th high support the downside targets are the 9 ema, Sept 1st high and 55 ema.
  
• Broad market strength continued with XLRE, XLI, XLB, XLY & XLF all making 3% plus gains last week.
  
• Econ data this week includes PCE, Durable goods, Consumer conf & GDP.
  
• Small & Mid cap showing relative strength
  
• Bullish setup into year end but pull back likely as price is overbought
  
• RSI 78 | VIX at 12.27 | 10 year 3.91%