ES Weekly Levels(Feb12-16)

Another strong week for the market as both NQ and ES hit new all-time highs, with ES closing above the psychological 5000 level. Mega-cap tech, along with small caps (Russell 2000 gained 2.6%), led the way. BTC also rallied, affirming the market's risk-on bias. The market, now highly extended, awaits this week's CPI report, small cap earnings & PPI data for continued bullish momentum.

SUMMARY

• ES made another ATH with a weekly gain of 1.39% after trading in a range of 111 pts.
  
• ES closed above key psychological level of 5000.
  
• Expect bullish continuaton above 5000.
  
• 1st upside target is the MTF 1.618 Fib X (5117)
  
• If price drops back below 5000 a test of the 9 ema is likely.
  
• If price drops below the 9 ema a move back to the 55 ema at 4800 is possible.
  
• Small caps showed strength last week finishing up 2.6%
  
• Strength in BTC points to risk on sentiment.
  
• Earnings cont' with reports from growth names ABNB, DDOG, HOOD, LYFT, SHOP, AMAT, COIN, DKNG, ROKU, TTD as well as KO, DE, KHC & HAS
  
• Risk of outsized move in either direction is high.
  
• Econ data this week includes CPI on Tues, Retail Sales on Thurs & PPI on Fri
  
• Elevated terrorist/war risk due to escalaton of conflicts in the Middle East.
  
• RSI 67.23 VIX at 13.84 | 10 year 4.02%