EURGBP Analysis : Curve Breakdown + Directional Setup + Target

🧠 Institutional Context & Smart Money Bias
This EURGBP chart offers a masterclass in engineered liquidity and market traps. Institutions have created an illusion of bullish strength through:

A manipulated rounded accumulation curve

A controlled channel phase

A false breakout above the reversal zone

These are textbook signals that the retail crowd is being misled, while smart money is preparing for a deeper move. Let’s dissect it step by step.

📊 Phase-by-Phase Technical Breakdown
🔻 1. Bearish Channel – Sentiment Shaping Phase
From July 11 to July 21, the pair traded within a descending parallel channel, forming a bearish market structure.

This phase was not a genuine trend, but a sentiment builder—to:

Create a belief in continued bearishness

Gather liquidity around the channel boundaries

The upper and lower bounds of the channel were respected precisely, revealing market maker intent.

📈 2. Parabolic Curve Support – Trap Engineered
Price transitioned out of the channel into a rounded bullish curve—a visual cue suggesting accumulation and strength.

This curved trendline often misleads retail traders into thinking a breakout rally is coming.

Price surged aggressively toward the Previous Reversal Zone, further fueling FOMO buys.

But this move was not sustainable. Why?

➡️ Because it lacked a clean base and was built off a manipulated liquidity sweep. The curve was a setup.

🟥 3. Previous Reversal Zone & Major BOS – Institutional Exit Point
Price entered the Previous Reversal Zone, a marked area of prior supply.

This is where institutional orders were likely resting.

After briefly exceeding the previous high, the market instantly reversed with force—evidence of:

Stop hunts

Distribution

Smart money selling into retail breakout buyers

The Major BOS (Break of Structure) confirms the shift: The trend is no longer bullish.

⚠️ 4. Curve Support Breakdown – Structure Shift Triggered
After peaking, the price violated the curve support, confirming the bullish trap.

This breakdown signals a phase transition:

From accumulation illusion → distribution reality

From retail optimism → smart money unloading

🟨 5. Central Zone – Decision Point
Price is now hovering at the Central Zone, a region of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

This is where market makers may:

Redistribute for another leg down

Fake a pullback before continuing lower

Temporarily rally to trap more longs

This area will determine short-term directional bias. That’s why your setup smartly outlines two conditions from this point.

🔀 Trade Scenarios – MMC Conditions
🔻 Condition 1: Bearish Continuation Toward Next Reversal Zone
If the price rejects the Central Zone and begins forming lower highs and bearish structures:

Expect further downside

This confirms the market is in redistribution mode

Target: Next Reversal Zone at 0.8630–0.8640

💡 Rationale: Institutions are driving price back into demand zones to grab new liquidity or fill leftover buy orders.

🔁 Condition 2: Temporary Recovery & Trap Continuation
If price holds above the Central Zone and breaks short-term highs:

A short-term bullish rally may occur

Likely targets: 0.8675–0.8685

This may act as a fake-out rally, creating more buying interest before a deeper dump

💡 Rationale: Smart money may induce more buyers to create fresh liquidity pockets before dropping toward the next reversal zone.

🔐 Key MMC Zones & Structure Levels
Zone/Level Purpose
0.8695–0.8700 Previous Reversal Zone / Major BOS – Institutional distribution area
0.8660–0.8665 Central Zone – Mid-point equilibrium & battle zone
0.8630–0.8640 Next Reversal Zone – Potential bullish interest area for demand

🧠 Smart Money Summary
This chart showcases a multi-stage smart money plan:

Create channel to shape bias

1. Form curve to generate false hope
   
3. Push into supply and trap late buyers
   
5. Break curve support to shift structure
   
7. Retest Central Zone to decide next manipulation leg
   
9. Deliver price toward true unfilled demand zones
   
11. This is how institutions engineer movement while retail gets trapped chasing direction.