EUR / JPY - 1H Divergence - SHORT
This pair has tested 128.6 three times since yesterday and rejected this level many more in May, we have a clear divergence indication on the RSI with declining volumes, meaning fewer buyers are joining the market and it's unlikely this level will be broken without a pullback to a level sufficient to bring back in the buyers. The Eurozone had a PMI report as forecasted this morning, which in comparison to other periods could be construed as positive, but again, not sufficient to break this level.
I'm looking for a target @126 the 61.8% fib of this last move and a level of previous support, long term we have been bearish on this pair since Feb, we're trading with the daily trend, there is significant support @126 May - July of 2017, therefore any lower, would be very risky, I have a longer-term view in the link below
I'm looking for a target @126 the 61.8% fib of this last move and a level of previous support, long term we have been bearish on this pair since Feb, we're trading with the daily trend, there is significant support @126 May - July of 2017, therefore any lower, would be very risky, I have a longer-term view in the link below
Trade attivo:
Sold: 05-06-18 - 09:53 @128.473
Look at the daily bearish trend and the descending channel we're trading in, the Euro has been simply doing a pullback after Yen weakness after the BoJ reduced their bond buying by 20bn, otherwise, it would have carried on down, the Eurozone problems are not solved and the price is reflecting that!
The orange triangle is where the bulls are heading, after or before this move, the edge of the channel, but technicals are telling me, that isn't happening until a pullback has occurred to attract more buyers are a lower price.
The pink dashed line is the edge of our profit zone, but we'll start seeing support around 127, once we break 128, many short term traders will sell their buy positions and we'll move quickly down.
Look at the daily bearish trend and the descending channel we're trading in, the Euro has been simply doing a pullback after Yen weakness after the BoJ reduced their bond buying by 20bn, otherwise, it would have carried on down, the Eurozone problems are not solved and the price is reflecting that!
The orange triangle is where the bulls are heading, after or before this move, the edge of the channel, but technicals are telling me, that isn't happening until a pullback has occurred to attract more buyers are a lower price.
The pink dashed line is the edge of our profit zone, but we'll start seeing support around 127, once we break 128, many short term traders will sell their buy positions and we'll move quickly down.
Commento:
In terms of daily currency strength, the Yen is holding above the Euro, another indicator of a larger bearish move coming up.
Commento:
We've now found the first real area of support, watch the volume and if the RSI bounces off and down the line or breaks straight through. There is a bit of a sell-off of the Yen this afternoon, Euro slowly rising, so patience is needed, they can easily revert back to bearish.
Commento:
No idea what just happened on the Euro, any ideas, all Euro pairs did this?
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto:
Breakeven stop reached, no idea what happened to the Euro.... I was sitting on a nice profit on a number of trades that have now reversed to nothing, no loss, but frustrating. I have no trades open. I'm off for the night.
Trade attivo:
Let’s try this again
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto
Commento:
There was no trap, just a poor counter trend trade .... never blame the market.
This pair has been in an uptrend for nearly a week, divergence is a contrarian approach, sometimes it works, but it's important to get the subtext of the rest of the market correct.
Trying again was a poor trade.... I will now change my approach as the market has changed. So we must change tactics.
This pair has been in an uptrend for nearly a week, divergence is a contrarian approach, sometimes it works, but it's important to get the subtext of the rest of the market correct.
Trying again was a poor trade.... I will now change my approach as the market has changed. So we must change tactics.
Commento:
Look at that weekly pin bar.... 4 years and still learning, never stop
Commento:
Things are hotting up as various pairs approach retracements / major confluence levels.
Commento:
If you're making lots of trades per day and risking more than a few % of your trading account on each trade, and trading lots of the same pairs all the time, your not trading, your gambling and badly. That maximum I ever trade is 5% of my entire trading account and that's to the top of my stop loss and that's only if the set-up is a 5 star, I may do that once a week if I'm lucky, it's normally closer to 1-3%
Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.
If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.
Commento:
The longer-term view as in March, yes, it's still valid, nothing has changed for months and it won't all year.
