ECB FLOOR in EURUSD
Aggiornato
A good time to update the latest EURUSD chart after an action packed few weeks in markets. The immediate risk for EURUSD is a move lower to cement the ECB floor via rate differentials.
For those who have been following the previous conversations in Telegram on rate differentials; a good time to review the chart telegraphed miles in advance. You will notice the targets have already been cleared with the ECB/Fed combo cleared, smart money is already positioned. To put simply; it means the test of the 1.081x is not required from a Fundamental perspective.
USD is facing increasing headwinds via both the fiscal and monetary side. The strength of domestic demand in US has kept USD held up for longer than expected but yesterday’s consumer confidence implies that the supply side weakness we have been tracking closely is finally starting to spillover into the demand side. This will be where USD strength gets converted into weakness, the point seems to be arriving.
Expecting a spike again this week (as early as tomorrow) as a result of quarterly end capital rebalancing. The USD bear market is coming, retail cannot smell the change of trend coming that started some time ago. A very active Q419 in FX markets anticipated with positioning set to take place, a lot of consolidation with renewed buying before momentum kicks in Q120.
The ECB floor at 1.081x will provide strength back towards 1.13xx implying a base has been established. Whilst to the other side, a break of the downtrend trend-line will require immediate reassessment implying the technical test of the ECB floor is not necessary.
Best of luck all those in EURUSD
For those who have been following the previous conversations in Telegram on rate differentials; a good time to review the chart telegraphed miles in advance. You will notice the targets have already been cleared with the ECB/Fed combo cleared, smart money is already positioned. To put simply; it means the test of the 1.081x is not required from a Fundamental perspective.
USD is facing increasing headwinds via both the fiscal and monetary side. The strength of domestic demand in US has kept USD held up for longer than expected but yesterday’s consumer confidence implies that the supply side weakness we have been tracking closely is finally starting to spillover into the demand side. This will be where USD strength gets converted into weakness, the point seems to be arriving.
Expecting a spike again this week (as early as tomorrow) as a result of quarterly end capital rebalancing. The USD bear market is coming, retail cannot smell the change of trend coming that started some time ago. A very active Q419 in FX markets anticipated with positioning set to take place, a lot of consolidation with renewed buying before momentum kicks in Q120.
The ECB floor at 1.081x will provide strength back towards 1.13xx implying a base has been established. Whilst to the other side, a break of the downtrend trend-line will require immediate reassessment implying the technical test of the ECB floor is not necessary.
Best of luck all those in EURUSD
Nota
Need to be wary of a base here... Nota
!! An important update here... !! 
Nota
We are getting the break... a test of the floor is being ruled out!
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