Can technical analysis infer the result of Fed Tightening?

9 mar 2022

This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the two criteria for a slowdown to be considered a recession are two consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth as well as a trough in unemployment). Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have been consistent indicators of economic slowdowns and very rarely move to the upside with a significant degree of magnitude without preceding a recession or at least a period of stock-market volatility.