GBP/JPY Bears Back in Control – Is 195.50 the Next Target?

🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders)
GBP Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+3,704) while shorts decreased (-912) → speculators are turning more bullish on the Pound.
JPY Futures: Non-commercial longs sharply increased (+14,727) while shorts declined (-3,362) → strong bullish momentum returning to the Yen.
📌 Combined interpretation: Opposite momentum — both GBP and JPY show long accumulation, but the strength is significantly higher on the Yen, suggesting potential short-term weakness for GBP/JPY.

🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning)
59% short vs 41% long.
📌 Retail slightly skewed short → moderate contrarian signal, but not extreme. A short-term bounce is possible, though the broader macro picture remains fragile for GBP.

🔹 Seasonality
October is historically bullish for GBP/JPY on a 5–10 year average (+1.8% to +2.4%).
However, 15–20 year data show a more neutral to slightly negative bias, reflecting volatility rather than stable direction.
📌 Overall, a neutral-to-bullish seasonal bias, but vulnerable to a technical correction after the strong rallies seen in August–September.

🔹 Price Action
Strong rejection from the 200.50–201.00 supply zone with consecutive bearish daily closes.
Current dynamic support sits around 197.00–196.50, aligned with the ascending trendline.
RSI remains neutral and far from oversold → room for further downside.
Possible pullback toward 199.00–199.50 before a new bearish leg.
Main downside targets: 195.50, then 194.00 as an extended target.

🔹 Trading Outlook
Main Bias: Short-term bearish, with JPY strength (COT) and a corrective structure following the 201.00 top.
Contrarian Risk: Slight retail short bias could trigger a minor bounce before continuation lower.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 199.50 / 200.50
Support: 197.00 / 195.50 / 194.00
🎯 Outlook: Expect a pullback toward 199.00 before another bearish move toward 195.50. Daily structure remains bearish as long as 200.50 holds.