On Thursday (May 15), the gold market saw a "shocking reversal". The spot gold price fell nearly 2% in the early Asian session to $3120.64/ounce (a low point in more than a month). Then the bulls launched a counterattack, which helped the gold price to rise violently. It finally closed at $3239.58/ounce, a single-day increase of nearly 2%, with an amplitude of more than $100! In the early Asian session on Friday (May 16), spot gold continued to rise, breaking through the 3250 mark to $3252.06/ounce. On the one hand, the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks were postponed to Friday, and the leaders of both sides no longer attended. The market dispelled the expectation that Russia and Ukraine would quickly reach a peace agreement, and safe-haven funds and bargain hunting quickly returned to the gold market. On the other hand, the US economic data performed poorly, the Fed's expectations of a rate cut increased, the US Treasury yields fell sharply, and the US dollar index was also under downward pressure, providing momentum for the gold price to rise.
1. Economic data collapsed across the board: Fed rate cut expectations rose sharply
"Thursday's data created more room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market formed a more dovish expectation." This statement by Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, revealed the first key driver of the surge in gold prices.
The US economic data for April released on Thursday can be described as "annihilation": the producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, far below the expected growth of 0.2%; retail sales growth fell sharply from 1.7% in March to 0.1%; manufacturing output fell by 0.4%, far exceeding the expected 0.2% decline.
This series of data directly led to violent fluctuations in the US bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield plunged 11 basis points to 4.435% on Thursday, the largest single-day drop since March 28; the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, plunged 9.2 basis points to 3.961%. The bond market is voting with real money - economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion.
"I suspect it's not just about tariffs, there's an underlying tone of weakness among U.S. consumers." Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman's concerns are becoming a reality. More alarmingly, Walmart announced that it would raise prices due to tariff costs, which indicates that the pressure on the consumer side has just begun.
The 0.2% drop in the dollar index may seem insignificant, but in a specific context it has become the last straw that broke the camel's back. Thursday's market perfectly illustrates this.
Under pressure from weak economic data, the dollar index fell 0.2% to around 100.82 on Thursday; real interest rates fell: 10-year TIPS yields fell below 1.8%.
"Although we reached a truce with China last weekend, the problem has not been completely resolved." Thierry Wizman's words reveal deeper concerns - the global trade system is being restructured and the dollar's reserve currency status is facing challenges.
2. Putin ignites risk aversion frenzy: chain reaction of broken peace talks
"Putin's absence from the peace talks in Turkey has dampened expectations for progress in a peace agreement, which I think will help support gold prices today." Peter Grant's analysis reveals the second key factor behind the surge in gold prices - a sharp rise in geopolitical risks.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine took a dramatic turn on May 15:
Putin refused to meet with Zelensky and only sent a "second-level official delegation."
Zelensky angrily denounced: "This is disrespect for me personally, Erdogan, and Trump."
A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Minister sneered: "Ukraine is getting smaller and smaller."
On Thursday, Turkey only held talks with Ukraine and Russia respectively. According to TASS, the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul may be postponed until Friday.
This diplomatic farce directly led to:
Trump stated: "Nothing will happen until I meet with Putin."
US Secretary of State Rubio bluntly said that he had "low expectations" for the talks.
200 reporters waited in Istanbul for a long time, and the peace talks were actually deadlocked.
On the 15th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky ended his visit to Turkey and went to Albania. Zelensky previously said that he would go to Albania with Turkish President Erdogan on the 16th to attend the European Political Community Summit.
At the same time, the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement were also deadlocked. Although Trump claimed that "it was very close to reaching an agreement", Iranian sources revealed that "there is still a gap that needs to be bridged." The concentrated outbreak of geopolitical risks has made the safe-haven property of gold extremely prominent.
Conclusion: A new era for gold has begun
At this point in time, the gold market is facing an unprecedented complex environment: the expectation of "no landing" of the US economy has been shattered, and the risk of recession has increased; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is facing reconstruction (Powell's latest statement); multiple risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East are intertwined.
"We may be entering a period of more frequent and potentially more prolonged supply shocks." This warning from Fed Chairman Powell may be the best reminder for gold investors. When uncertainty becomes the new normal, the monetary attributes of gold are regaining their luster.
This trading day will usher in the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May, the monthly rate of the US Import Price Index in April, the preliminary value of the annualized total number of US building permits in April, and the annualized total number of US new housing starts in April. Investors need to pay attention. In addition, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the talks between Ukraine and Russia and pay attention to the dynamic news of US President Trump.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD
1. Economic data collapsed across the board: Fed rate cut expectations rose sharply
"Thursday's data created more room for the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market formed a more dovish expectation." This statement by Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, revealed the first key driver of the surge in gold prices.
The US economic data for April released on Thursday can be described as "annihilation": the producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, far below the expected growth of 0.2%; retail sales growth fell sharply from 1.7% in March to 0.1%; manufacturing output fell by 0.4%, far exceeding the expected 0.2% decline.
This series of data directly led to violent fluctuations in the US bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield plunged 11 basis points to 4.435% on Thursday, the largest single-day drop since March 28; the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, plunged 9.2 basis points to 3.961%. The bond market is voting with real money - economic slowdown is a foregone conclusion.
"I suspect it's not just about tariffs, there's an underlying tone of weakness among U.S. consumers." Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman's concerns are becoming a reality. More alarmingly, Walmart announced that it would raise prices due to tariff costs, which indicates that the pressure on the consumer side has just begun.
The 0.2% drop in the dollar index may seem insignificant, but in a specific context it has become the last straw that broke the camel's back. Thursday's market perfectly illustrates this.
Under pressure from weak economic data, the dollar index fell 0.2% to around 100.82 on Thursday; real interest rates fell: 10-year TIPS yields fell below 1.8%.
"Although we reached a truce with China last weekend, the problem has not been completely resolved." Thierry Wizman's words reveal deeper concerns - the global trade system is being restructured and the dollar's reserve currency status is facing challenges.
2. Putin ignites risk aversion frenzy: chain reaction of broken peace talks
"Putin's absence from the peace talks in Turkey has dampened expectations for progress in a peace agreement, which I think will help support gold prices today." Peter Grant's analysis reveals the second key factor behind the surge in gold prices - a sharp rise in geopolitical risks.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine took a dramatic turn on May 15:
Putin refused to meet with Zelensky and only sent a "second-level official delegation."
Zelensky angrily denounced: "This is disrespect for me personally, Erdogan, and Trump."
A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Minister sneered: "Ukraine is getting smaller and smaller."
On Thursday, Turkey only held talks with Ukraine and Russia respectively. According to TASS, the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul may be postponed until Friday.
This diplomatic farce directly led to:
Trump stated: "Nothing will happen until I meet with Putin."
US Secretary of State Rubio bluntly said that he had "low expectations" for the talks.
200 reporters waited in Istanbul for a long time, and the peace talks were actually deadlocked.
On the 15th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky ended his visit to Turkey and went to Albania. Zelensky previously said that he would go to Albania with Turkish President Erdogan on the 16th to attend the European Political Community Summit.
At the same time, the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement were also deadlocked. Although Trump claimed that "it was very close to reaching an agreement", Iranian sources revealed that "there is still a gap that needs to be bridged." The concentrated outbreak of geopolitical risks has made the safe-haven property of gold extremely prominent.
Conclusion: A new era for gold has begun
At this point in time, the gold market is facing an unprecedented complex environment: the expectation of "no landing" of the US economy has been shattered, and the risk of recession has increased; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is facing reconstruction (Powell's latest statement); multiple risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East are intertwined.
"We may be entering a period of more frequent and potentially more prolonged supply shocks." This warning from Fed Chairman Powell may be the best reminder for gold investors. When uncertainty becomes the new normal, the monetary attributes of gold are regaining their luster.
This trading day will usher in the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May, the monthly rate of the US Import Price Index in April, the preliminary value of the annualized total number of US building permits in April, and the annualized total number of US new housing starts in April. Investors need to pay attention. In addition, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the talks between Ukraine and Russia and pay attention to the dynamic news of US President Trump.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD 
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.