Spot gold prices continued to rise before the U.S. market opened, hitting the $3,320 level during the day. Market concerns that the situation in the Middle East may get out of control and Trump's fiscal bill was blocked in Congress became the main factors driving precious metals higher.
Fundamental analysis
Reports show that Israel is considering launching an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which has triggered a surge in risk aversion in the market. Although the Biden administration has successfully persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to change his mind, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts seem to be deadlocked, and the market has begun to question whether Trump can still influence Netanyahu's actions.
At the same time, the Trump administration is also facing challenges at home, and its tax bill has difficulty gaining enough support in Congress. Trump was clearly frustrated when he talked to lawmakers who demanded a significant increase in the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. In addition, after Trump's call with Putin, the Vatican has proposed to hold events related to the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, which also brings some uncertainty to the market.
Technical aspects:
From the daily chart analysis, spot gold is at a key technical node. The price has broken through $3,230 and found support at $3,300. The Bollinger Band indicator shows that the middle track is at about $3,299 and the upper track is about $3,429, which is the short-term target area. In the MACD indicator, the MACD value is -22.61, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening. However, the price remains above the long-term rising trend line, indicating that the medium- and long-term bullish pattern has not been destroyed.
From the RSI indicator, the current value is 54.85, which is in the neutral area and does not show obvious overbought or oversold signals. It is worth noting that the price encountered obvious resistance at the $3,360 level, forming a double top pattern, which may indicate an increase in short-term adjustment pressure. At the same time, the support line at $3,120.64 has become a key line of defense below, and if it is lost, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.
From the trend line analysis, gold has maintained a steady upward channel since the beginning of this year. Although there was a high point decline in mid-April, the overall trend integrity has not been destroyed. At this stage, the price is consolidating in the $3,230-3,360 range, and the breakthrough direction will determine the medium-term trend. The round mark of $3,500 above will be an important target after breaking through the upward trend.
Market sentiment observation
The current market sentiment is significantly biased towards risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions have promoted the safe-haven properties of gold. The Middle East risk premium is reflected in the trend of gold prices, and the market's willingness to hedge and arbitrage has increased significantly. Traders' confidence in the US dollar has wavered, and the uncertainty of US fiscal policy has further exacerbated this trend.
Outlook for the future market
Bullish outlook: If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, especially if Israel confirms its plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, gold prices may break through the upper edge of the recent consolidation range of $3,360 and advance to the round mark of $3,500. The continued political deadlock in the US Congress will also weaken the US dollar and indirectly support gold prices. In the medium term, the continued increase in global central bank gold reserves will provide solid support for gold prices.
Short outlook: From a technical perspective, the price is close to the neckline of the double top pattern, and there is a risk of a technical correction. If geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers, gold prices may fall back to test the $3,230 support level, or even drop to $3,120. In the long run, if the US fiscal policy becomes clearer and economic data improves, a rebound in the US dollar index will suppress gold prices.
XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Fundamental analysis
Reports show that Israel is considering launching an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which has triggered a surge in risk aversion in the market. Although the Biden administration has successfully persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to change his mind, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts seem to be deadlocked, and the market has begun to question whether Trump can still influence Netanyahu's actions.
At the same time, the Trump administration is also facing challenges at home, and its tax bill has difficulty gaining enough support in Congress. Trump was clearly frustrated when he talked to lawmakers who demanded a significant increase in the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. In addition, after Trump's call with Putin, the Vatican has proposed to hold events related to the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, which also brings some uncertainty to the market.
Technical aspects:
From the daily chart analysis, spot gold is at a key technical node. The price has broken through $3,230 and found support at $3,300. The Bollinger Band indicator shows that the middle track is at about $3,299 and the upper track is about $3,429, which is the short-term target area. In the MACD indicator, the MACD value is -22.61, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening. However, the price remains above the long-term rising trend line, indicating that the medium- and long-term bullish pattern has not been destroyed.
From the RSI indicator, the current value is 54.85, which is in the neutral area and does not show obvious overbought or oversold signals. It is worth noting that the price encountered obvious resistance at the $3,360 level, forming a double top pattern, which may indicate an increase in short-term adjustment pressure. At the same time, the support line at $3,120.64 has become a key line of defense below, and if it is lost, it may trigger a deeper adjustment.
From the trend line analysis, gold has maintained a steady upward channel since the beginning of this year. Although there was a high point decline in mid-April, the overall trend integrity has not been destroyed. At this stage, the price is consolidating in the $3,230-3,360 range, and the breakthrough direction will determine the medium-term trend. The round mark of $3,500 above will be an important target after breaking through the upward trend.
Market sentiment observation
The current market sentiment is significantly biased towards risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions have promoted the safe-haven properties of gold. The Middle East risk premium is reflected in the trend of gold prices, and the market's willingness to hedge and arbitrage has increased significantly. Traders' confidence in the US dollar has wavered, and the uncertainty of US fiscal policy has further exacerbated this trend.
Outlook for the future market
Bullish outlook: If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, especially if Israel confirms its plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, gold prices may break through the upper edge of the recent consolidation range of $3,360 and advance to the round mark of $3,500. The continued political deadlock in the US Congress will also weaken the US dollar and indirectly support gold prices. In the medium term, the continued increase in global central bank gold reserves will provide solid support for gold prices.
Short outlook: From a technical perspective, the price is close to the neckline of the double top pattern, and there is a risk of a technical correction. If geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers, gold prices may fall back to test the $3,230 support level, or even drop to $3,120. In the long run, if the US fiscal policy becomes clearer and economic data improves, a rebound in the US dollar index will suppress gold prices.
XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.