Spot gold continued its strong performance this week before the European market. After a technical retracement from a two-week high in the previous trading day, it attracted bargain-hunting buying again and the trading price remained above $3,300. Fundamental factors continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals. Gold has risen 3% this week and is expected to record its best single-week performance since early April.
Fundamental Analysis
The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big, Beautiful Act" by a narrow margin on Thursday. The comprehensive bill covering tax cuts and spending is now submitted to the Senate for deliberation and is expected to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government debt over the next decade, raising market concerns about the deterioration of the US fiscal situation. Earlier, Moody's rating agency downgraded the US credit rating from the highest level "Aaa" last week, and the weak 20-year Treasury auction results on Wednesday showed that the market demand for US assets has weakened. These factors, combined with the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, continue to suppress the performance of the US dollar and provide support for gold denominated in US dollars.
Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the economic and business confidence brought about by the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy. Last week's U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data both showed mild inflationary pressures, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. CME Federal Funds Futures Instruments show that the market expects a significant increase in the probability of at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year. This monetary policy expectation further limits the upside of the U.S. dollar and provides additional support for non-yielding gold assets.
Geopolitically, Trump reportedly informed European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the conflict with Ukraine because he believes that Russia is winning. At the same time, the Israeli military has stepped up its military operations in Gaza, increasing the risk of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. These developments have verified the near-term positive outlook for safe-haven commodity gold.
Technical:
From a technical perspective on the daily chart, spot gold shows a typical upward trend pattern. The price is currently running around $3,330.00, above the key upward trend line, indicating that the bull market structure remains intact. The Bollinger Band system shows that the price is supported near the middle track of $3301.24, and the upper track of $3420 and the lower track of $3175.11 constitute the current fluctuation range.
In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line is 20.57, the DEA line is 24.62, and the MACD histogram is -8.09, indicating that there is a certain adjustment in short-term momentum. Although the MACD line is above the zero axis, the histogram is negative, indicating that the price may face short-term consolidation needs.
The current reading of the RSI relative strength index is 55.96, which is in the neutral area and has fallen from the previous overbought level. This technical signal shows that the market is undergoing a healthy technical adjustment after the previous rapid rise, accumulating momentum for subsequent rises.
Market sentiment observation
The current gold market shows a cautious and optimistic sentiment. On the one hand, fundamental positive factors continue to accumulate, including escalating geopolitical risks, intensified US fiscal concerns, and support from monetary policy expectations, which maintain the market's bullish sentiment basis. On the other hand, the short-term adjustment signals shown by technical indicators remind traders to pay attention to profit-taking pressure.
Traders generally believe that the current pullback is a healthy technical consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The continued existence of safe-haven demand provides a solid bottom support for gold prices, while the relative weakness of the US dollar further strengthens the attractiveness of precious metals.
Outlook
In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $3260.00-3380.00. The key support levels are concentrated at the rising trend line of $3260.00 and the Bollinger middle track level of $3301.24. If the price can hold these support levels, it is expected to retest the resistance level of $3380.00 and challenge the previous high of $3420.
In terms of medium- and long-term prospects, the continued support of fundamental factors has created a positive investment environment for gold. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the US fiscal situation are expected to continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals in the coming months. Technically, some analysts believe that as long as the price remains above the long-term moving average of $3120.64, the upward trend pattern will remain valid.
Risk factors mainly come from the potential rebound of the US dollar and the easing of geopolitical situation. If US economic data improves significantly or trade tensions show signs of easing, it may weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are concerned about the effectiveness of the $3260.00 support level, and the loss of this level may trigger a deeper technical adjustment.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD
Fundamental Analysis
The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big, Beautiful Act" by a narrow margin on Thursday. The comprehensive bill covering tax cuts and spending is now submitted to the Senate for deliberation and is expected to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government debt over the next decade, raising market concerns about the deterioration of the US fiscal situation. Earlier, Moody's rating agency downgraded the US credit rating from the highest level "Aaa" last week, and the weak 20-year Treasury auction results on Wednesday showed that the market demand for US assets has weakened. These factors, combined with the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, continue to suppress the performance of the US dollar and provide support for gold denominated in US dollars.
Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the economic and business confidence brought about by the uncertainty of the Trump administration's trade policy. Last week's U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data both showed mild inflationary pressures, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. CME Federal Funds Futures Instruments show that the market expects a significant increase in the probability of at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year. This monetary policy expectation further limits the upside of the U.S. dollar and provides additional support for non-yielding gold assets.
Geopolitically, Trump reportedly informed European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the conflict with Ukraine because he believes that Russia is winning. At the same time, the Israeli military has stepped up its military operations in Gaza, increasing the risk of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. These developments have verified the near-term positive outlook for safe-haven commodity gold.
Technical:
From a technical perspective on the daily chart, spot gold shows a typical upward trend pattern. The price is currently running around $3,330.00, above the key upward trend line, indicating that the bull market structure remains intact. The Bollinger Band system shows that the price is supported near the middle track of $3301.24, and the upper track of $3420 and the lower track of $3175.11 constitute the current fluctuation range.
In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line is 20.57, the DEA line is 24.62, and the MACD histogram is -8.09, indicating that there is a certain adjustment in short-term momentum. Although the MACD line is above the zero axis, the histogram is negative, indicating that the price may face short-term consolidation needs.
The current reading of the RSI relative strength index is 55.96, which is in the neutral area and has fallen from the previous overbought level. This technical signal shows that the market is undergoing a healthy technical adjustment after the previous rapid rise, accumulating momentum for subsequent rises.
Market sentiment observation
The current gold market shows a cautious and optimistic sentiment. On the one hand, fundamental positive factors continue to accumulate, including escalating geopolitical risks, intensified US fiscal concerns, and support from monetary policy expectations, which maintain the market's bullish sentiment basis. On the other hand, the short-term adjustment signals shown by technical indicators remind traders to pay attention to profit-taking pressure.
Traders generally believe that the current pullback is a healthy technical consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The continued existence of safe-haven demand provides a solid bottom support for gold prices, while the relative weakness of the US dollar further strengthens the attractiveness of precious metals.
Outlook
In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $3260.00-3380.00. The key support levels are concentrated at the rising trend line of $3260.00 and the Bollinger middle track level of $3301.24. If the price can hold these support levels, it is expected to retest the resistance level of $3380.00 and challenge the previous high of $3420.
In terms of medium- and long-term prospects, the continued support of fundamental factors has created a positive investment environment for gold. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the US fiscal situation are expected to continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals in the coming months. Technically, some analysts believe that as long as the price remains above the long-term moving average of $3120.64, the upward trend pattern will remain valid.
Risk factors mainly come from the potential rebound of the US dollar and the easing of geopolitical situation. If US economic data improves significantly or trade tensions show signs of easing, it may weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are concerned about the effectiveness of the $3260.00 support level, and the loss of this level may trigger a deeper technical adjustment.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD 
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.