2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 39 (0.3077 BTC)

9 feb 2019

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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It has been a while since the last update to the trading challenge and that is for good reason. It is not because I am losing motivation or getting discouraged, it is because these markets have been locked in ranges and I have been patiently waiting for a trend.

With very little entering / exiting being done I did not see the need for a daily post. My intention is to record my trading results in real time, and I have realized that daily updates are not needed to accomplish that goal.

The challenge did not start how I wanted and I was beating myself in the moment. However in hindsight I do not feel back about my performance at all. I have been trading crypto, FOREX and SPXUSD primarily and I would be highly impressed by anyone who made money in those markets thus far in 2019.

Crypto was sideways, FOREX was very chopping and provided many false signals / whipsaws (at least for USD pairs). The S&P slicing right through $2,650 on tiny volume still makes 0 sense to me.

Now that I have some positions moving in my favor I am hopeful that we can get this challenge out of the gutter. I am expecting a big rally in crypto due to alts bouncing from major horizontal support and total market cap supporting above 100B.

I have built a good amount of long exposure, relative to remaining bankroll, and I still have ~33% on the sidelines waiting to add if the positions continue to move in my favor.

Open Positions

Short XRPUSD
Exposure: 1,200 XRP / 0.104 BTC
Price: $0.299
Stop: $0.27784
Risk: 7.07%

Long LTCH19
Exposure: 43 LTC / 0.40678 BTC
Price: 0.00946
Stop: 0.00947


Long WTIUSD
Exposure: 0.12 lots / 0.1966 BTC
Price: $55.30
Stop: $51.39
Risk: 7%

Long XBTM19
Exposure: 0.311 BTC
Enter: $3,392
Stop: $3,224
Risk: 4.9%

Long XBTUSD
Exposure: $5,000 / 1.384 BTC
Enter: $3,612.50
Stop: $3,584
Risk: 0.78%

Open Order

Order to add to XRPUSD Long
Stop Entry: $0.32267
Stop Loss: $0.2839
Risk: 11.8%
Exposure: 0.29 lots / 2,929 XRP / 0.2548 BTC

Order Entered to long ETHUSD
Stop Entry: $125.9
Stop Loss:$108.9
Risk: 13.6%
Exposure: 4.8 ETH / 0.1538 BTC

Order to open long on BCHUSD
Stop Entry: $131.26
Stop Loss; $112.95
Risk: 13.94%
Exposure: 3.05 lots / 3.05 BCH / 0.107 BTC


Watchtower

XAU

Notes: Weekly green 9. Bear div in daily RSI, as well as ADX, while price tests major resistance. Massive resistance from $1,305 to $1,355. If breakthrough $1,355 then retesting ATH’s seems very likely. If not then this could pullback sharply to the $1,200 area. Pumping to $1,350 and then forming a c&h would be ideal.

Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form c&h. Weekly close > $1,355 is my signal to fully enter.

XAG

Alerts: Symmetrical Triangle

Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s. On weekly green 9. Daily RSI bear div.

Gameplan: Watching for 1-4 week correction after the 9, thinking it could form Big W. Throwback to TL is another ideal entry.



ETHBTC

Patterns: Looks like 5 waves + ABC correction

Notes: Watching 3D Consensio + Stochastic. Love seeing spike and then retrace to bullish L MA. BTC market cap dominance at crucial area, could be forming descending triangle. Watching W S MA & bearish D L MA. Weekly golden cross at support.

Target: 0.065 if break triangle to upside

Gameplan: Watch D M MA + 2.5 week bear TL. Should be plenty of resistance from 0.032 - 0.034 to provide favorable entry.


BCHUSD

Notes: Breaking through ~ 6 week TL, like how daily MA’s are coming together in Consensio. $400 is obvious target, however looking at W SAR & 24 W MA in $300 neighborhood as area to scale out. Can get back in if break W SAR.

11 feb 2019

Nota

Long on XBTUSD was squeezed out near the bottom of a wick.
Exposure: $5,000 / 1.384 BTC
Enter: $3,612.5
Exit: $3,584
PnL: -0.0143 BTC
ROI: -1.03%

Opened long on ETHUSD
Exposure: 12 ETH / 0.4 BTC
Enter: $120.70
Stop: $114.49
Risk: 5.14%

Opened another long on XBTUSD
Exposure: $4,500 / 1.244 BTC
Enter: $3,616
Stop: $3,574
Risk: 1.16%

12 feb 2019

Nota

Took partial profit on LTCH19 long and moved stop into profit.

Exposure: 37 LTC / 0.368 BTC
Enter: 0.00997
Stops: 25 @ 0.01149 & 12 @ 0.0111
Realized PnL: 0.0234 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0714 BTC

Adjusted stop on XBTM19 long into profit
Stop: $3,484

Stopped Out of XBTUSD Long
PnL: 0.0185 BTC
ROI: -1.48%

Stopped Out of WTIUSD Long
PnL: -0.013 BTC
ROI: -6.61%

13 feb 2019

Nota

Entered Long XRPH19
Exposure: 10,000 XRP / 0.8511 BTC
Enter: 0.00008511
Stop: 0.00008359
Risk: 1.78%

14 feb 2019

Nota

Added to ETHUSD Long
Exposure: 29 ETH / 0.9889 BTC
Enter: $121.44
Stops: $114.49 & $112.49
Risk: 6.54%

18 feb 2019

Nota

Canceled stop buy orders on XRP, and BCH. and entered at 0.5 lots at $0.307 and 3.5 lots at $125.55 respectively.

Moved up stop loss on ETHUSD long to $118. Will make a new post as soon as I can (very soon).