Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days.
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end of it since it was so climactic and extreme.
key levels: 16000 - 18400 (but I doubt we get below 16400 for the next days/weeks)
bull case: Both sides make good money currently and we have a big range to trade. 17500 is my neutral price where I expect market to spend most of it’s time for the next days/weeks. We should see at least 10 session sideways to up movement.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears can not expect this to continue down for now and they have to continue to keep the market below 19000 and leave a big gap open up to 19350. Earnings start on Friday and I have no idea how that will go. So no bearish bias since my targets are all met.
short term: Neutral around 17500 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Selling the double top above 18300 for a casual 14000 point drop. Congratulations if you took it and held through it. I did not.
comment: W3 was climactic and there could be a possible W5. Right now we are in W4 and the given range will likely be respected and not broken. I will most likely mean reverse to 20000 over the next days.
current market cycle: strong bear - W3 concluded - W5 possibly down to 16000 if we get one but W3 could have been the end of it since it was so climactic and extreme.
key levels: 16000 - 18400 (but I doubt we get below 16400 for the next days/weeks)
bull case: Both sides make good money currently and we have a big range to trade. 17500 is my neutral price where I expect market to spend most of it’s time for the next days/weeks. We should see at least 10 session sideways to up movement.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears can not expect this to continue down for now and they have to continue to keep the market below 19000 and leave a big gap open up to 19350. Earnings start on Friday and I have no idea how that will go. So no bearish bias since my targets are all met.
short term: Neutral around 17500 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Selling the double top above 18300 for a casual 14000 point drop. Congratulations if you took it and held through it. I did not.
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Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.