Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards for 22000. Right now the wedge is clear but if we get so close to 22000, I doubt market will hesitate to print it. Bulls have to stay above 21500 or risk a deeper pullback to 21300 and I don’t know if they could do 22000 afterwards. If we print below 21500, I think I’d expect a lower high below 21800 but for now they are in full control and are favored for 22000.
Invalidation is below 21500.
bear case: Literally the exact same play every day. Globex and EU sell it, US session pumps. Don’t fight it. Will end soon but just don’t be early. Below 21500 would be a start but only a daily close below 21000 will make me turn bear.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Neutral because longs above 21650 are bad. Wait for a pullback to 21600 or 21550. Can you make them work? Sure but you would have to have a stop at least 21400 and scale in. Bears have nothing for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
trade of the day: Longing the double bottom on the 15m tf on US open at 24500.
comment: Bulls buy every dip and so should you, until it stops working. Clear target above and also clear invalidation level below us. Trade the wedge.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20700 - 22000
bull case: Bulls will likely get a third leg up tomorrow and if they want it bad, we could accelerate upwards for 22000. Right now the wedge is clear but if we get so close to 22000, I doubt market will hesitate to print it. Bulls have to stay above 21500 or risk a deeper pullback to 21300 and I don’t know if they could do 22000 afterwards. If we print below 21500, I think I’d expect a lower high below 21800 but for now they are in full control and are favored for 22000.
Invalidation is below 21500.
bear case: Literally the exact same play every day. Globex and EU sell it, US session pumps. Don’t fight it. Will end soon but just don’t be early. Below 21500 would be a start but only a daily close below 21000 will make me turn bear.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Neutral because longs above 21650 are bad. Wait for a pullback to 21600 or 21550. Can you make them work? Sure but you would have to have a stop at least 21400 and scale in. Bears have nothing for now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-24: Will update this section more after the coming week but in general the thesis is as for dax. Down over the summer and sideways to up into year end. I don’t think the lows for this year are in.
trade of the day: Longing the double bottom on the 15m tf on US open at 24500.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.