NG Possible Scenarios

We are in a downtrend and price has made lower lows and lower highs. Currently, price is moving up to retest the yellow broken level.

Since, we are in a downtrend, if price retests the yellow level and gets rejected from it, I expect a drop on NG to the marked green levels.

On the other hand, since price failed to break the last major low and could not make a lower low:
If price breaks the yellow level to the upside, we should wait for the red resistance level (last high) to be broken out to the upside and make a higher high, then we can expect a bullish reversal move on NG.