NIFTY 50 - ICT & SMC Analysis (April 9, 2025)

🧠 Big Picture Context (Daily Timeframe)
🔍 Structure:
The daily structure is in a macro bearish trend, confirmed by a Change of Character (ChoCH) from a previous higher high.
A market structure shift (MSS) occurred, indicating strong bearish intent.
A major Order Block (OB) around 24,300 – 24,800 has acted as strong supply.
Recent price action shows a rejection from 23,000+ levels, creating a new bearish leg.

🔄 Key Observations:
A clean Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the recent bearish move lies between 22,900 – 23,100, which price may want to revisit.
Price tapped into liquidity pools below previous lows (Sell-side liquidity swept).
Strong reaction up suggests a potential short-term bullish retracement.

🔄 Medium-Term Outlook (4H Chart)
🔍 Structure:
After the sharp bearish move, price made a strong reaction from the 21,800s, suggesting the presence of demand.
A clean PDL (Previous Day Low) sweep followed by BOS (Break of Structure) confirms short-term bullish market structure.

🔄 Current Price Action:
Price filled part of a green FVG (imbalance) and is now retracing from resistance.
The 22,900–23,000 zone contains:
A bearish OB
FVG
VI (Volume Imbalance)
Previous Weekly High (PWH)

→ This confluence makes it a high-probability reversal zone.

📉 Execution Timeframe (1H Chart)
🔍 Structure:
Price has now formed a BOS upwards after taking out liquidity near 21,800 (PDL).
Rally filled lower imbalance (FVG), creating a strong displacement candle and BOS above PDH.
Now consolidating under a supply zone with signs of weakness near 22,550 – 22,700.

🎯 Trade Idea: Sell on Retracement into Premium
📈 Bias: Bearish from premium supply zone.

🛠️ Trade Setup (1H + 4H Confluence):
Type Level/Zone
Entry 22,900 – 23,000 (Red FVG & OB)
Stop Loss Above 23,100 (above OB & VI)
Target 1 22,250 (PDH/imbalance fill)
Target 2 21,800 (PDL sweep area)
Target 3 21,600–21,500 (daily demand zone)

📊 Risk-Reward (Approx):
Risk: ~150 pts (23,100 – 22,950 entry)
Reward: ~400–1,400 pts depending on target
RRR: Minimum 2.5:1 up to 9:1

💡 ICT/SMC Concepts Applied:
Liquidity Sweep: Sell-side liquidity below PDL taken → large move up.
Fair Value Gaps: Price filled FVG and now sits just below another premium FVG.
Order Blocks: Bearish OB around 22,900–23,100 zone expected to act as supply.
PDH/PDL Reactions: Market respected those areas.
Market Structure Shift (MSS): Bearish momentum continues on higher TFs despite short-term rally.

🧭 What to Watch For:
If price breaks and holds above 23,100, this setup becomes invalid – it signals deeper retracement or reversal.
Watch volume or strong rejection candles in supply zone to enter with confirmation (ideal on 15M/5M for sniper entry).
Any clean FVGs left behind as price retraces could be rebalanced before dropping.

📌 Final Thoughts:
This is a classic SMC + ICT short setup after price retraced into premium zone following a strong move down. The confluence of OB, FVG, VI, and PDH makes this zone a high-probability turning point. Wait for confirmation and execute with proper risk management.