Markets are predictable. Trading S/D imbalances.

ieri

Pre-election. 1200% extension after a 2-year rally. Facing ATH with strong trend and expectations.

This is a rule or factorial based approach. What most people think - is usually how most people are positioned, or usually also is the logical truth.

When something extends... and some risks emerge -- you can't really trust charts (ie demand strength). that's a prejudgement? ie sloppy way to look at things.

Also somewhat predictable is the 2 year rally, 3rd year weakness. If markets stall -- markets sells off on expectations of that "rule" lol

ieri

Nota

"Markets are predictable": some times. You can find imbalances. Where one part of S-D equation dominates -> hence price follows.

ieri

Nota

Price = S/D dynamic.
Price rallies: because D > S.
Price stalls, because D = S.
Price falls, because, D < S.

People follow trends. When prices are result of a long-term S/D dynamic? You could in advance know where weakness would be simply using probability, logic and S-D basics.

ieri

Nota

1200% extension (mean high supply), without a selloff mean high expectations.
2 months before election - it rallies, meaning outcome is irrelevant. Yet statistically speaking, it never CRASHES trough the ATH resistance. --> implying, weak demand = known correction or top. Because Supply would show up.

12 ore fa

Nota

the cause is FEAR of where NVDA or AI boom is in the cycle. NVDA peak cycle earnings is also peak market top, hence the risks.

People push price higher during complacency, ignoring bad news. Weeks before earnings, they become worried or fearful.

Same psychology every time. lol

Especially true when EXTENDED price.

12 ore fa

Nota

hence it's predictable (but not garuanteed). it's "circumstance"