The Technical Landscape
Our prior long setup on
NVDA was invalidated, providing us with the invaluable information that the bullish momentum has stalled. Following the Fed's announcement, the market's breath has changed. We now see a potential downtrend forming on the daily chart, with price creating lower highs and respecting a new descending trendline. The bears, who have been slumbering, appear to be waking up.
Instead of fighting this new current, we look to flow with it. The thesis is no longer about bullish continuation, but about a potential reversion to the mean. Price has a memory, and we are targeting a return to the scene of the previous major breakout, the demand zone around the $152 level. This is simply one piece of the puzzle, viewed without bias or ego.
The Philosophy - Listening When The Market Speaks
The trend is your friend, until it isn't. Our job is not to predict when the friendship will end, but to recognize when the dynamic has changed and act accordingly.
Our previous attempt at a long wasn't a failure; it was the market telling us, at a very small cost, that our hypothesis was incorrect for the current conditions. A limitless trader embraces this information with gratitude, for it protects us from the much greater cost of being stubborn. We are not "flipping" from bull to bear out of emotion. We are simply listening, adapting, and aligning with the price action that is presenting itself right now. Don't be a salmon, stubbornly fighting a new and powerful current. A limitless trader considers all outcomes, and right now, the path of least resistance appears to be pointing down.
An Illustrative Setup
A safer, more conservative entry could be sought on a break and hold below the $168 support level, but always remember to manage your own risk based on your personal strategy.
Our prior long setup on
NVDA was invalidated, providing us with the invaluable information that the bullish momentum has stalled. Following the Fed's announcement, the market's breath has changed. We now see a potential downtrend forming on the daily chart, with price creating lower highs and respecting a new descending trendline. The bears, who have been slumbering, appear to be waking up.Instead of fighting this new current, we look to flow with it. The thesis is no longer about bullish continuation, but about a potential reversion to the mean. Price has a memory, and we are targeting a return to the scene of the previous major breakout, the demand zone around the $152 level. This is simply one piece of the puzzle, viewed without bias or ego.
The Philosophy - Listening When The Market Speaks
The trend is your friend, until it isn't. Our job is not to predict when the friendship will end, but to recognize when the dynamic has changed and act accordingly.
Our previous attempt at a long wasn't a failure; it was the market telling us, at a very small cost, that our hypothesis was incorrect for the current conditions. A limitless trader embraces this information with gratitude, for it protects us from the much greater cost of being stubborn. We are not "flipping" from bull to bear out of emotion. We are simply listening, adapting, and aligning with the price action that is presenting itself right now. Don't be a salmon, stubbornly fighting a new and powerful current. A limitless trader considers all outcomes, and right now, the path of least resistance appears to be pointing down.
An Illustrative Setup
- [] Style: Short / Mean Reversion
[] Entry: An area of confluence around $175, near the descending trendline resistance.
[] Stop Loss: A defined stop above recent highs and trendline resistance at $178.75. If price breaks this level, our bearish thesis is invalidated.
[] Take Profit: Targeting the area of prior breakout, around $152.50. - Risk/Reward: Approximately 1 : 5.9
A safer, more conservative entry could be sought on a break and hold below the $168 support level, but always remember to manage your own risk based on your personal strategy.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Trade attivo
The market presented with a slightly different opportunity - a double top. The trade is active, going in at around 179.50, with a stop loss of 185.50 and a take profit of 143.50. That's a 6 R:R for an early entry, and around 3 for a later entry with confirmation of breakdown.
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto
I forgot to update this trade idea. As you can tell - trading in a Manic Mr. Market can sometimes cause false breakouts as was the case here. I do plan on re-entering a short for an expected healthy correction to this stock.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.