THE WORLD IS CHANGING, SO IS THE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS

9 ott 2023

OIL_BRENT

On the fundamental side, Brent oil prices have been supported by a number of factors in recent months, including:

Strong global economic growth, which has boosted demand for oil.
Supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The decision by OPEC+ to cut production by 2 million barrels per day.
The war in Iran, which has raised concerns about further supply disruptions.
However, there are also some headwinds facing Brent oil prices, including:

The potential for a global economic recession, which would reduce demand for oil.
The release of oil from strategic reserves by the United States and other countries.
The increasing popularity of electric vehicles, which could reduce demand for oil in the long term.
Overall, the fundamental outlook for Brent oil is bullish. The factors supporting prices are likely to outweigh the headwinds in the near term, but there are some risks to the upside potential.

Technical analysis

On the technical side, Brent oil is currently in an uptrend. On the 30-minute chart, the price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator is above 50. This suggests that the bulls are in control and that the price is likely to continue to rise in the near term.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is also above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the MACD indicator is giving a bullish crossover signal. This further confirms the uptrend on the 4-hour chart.

On the daily chart, the price is also above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the RSI indicator is above 50. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue on the daily chart as well.

Elliott wave analysis

Elliott wave analysis suggests that Brent oil is currently in the fifth wave of a five-wave Elliott wave sequence. This means that the price is likely to continue to rise until it reaches its target, which is around $100 per barrel.

Conclusion

Overall, the fundamental and technical outlook for Brent oil is bullish. The price is likely to continue to rise in the near term, with a target of around $100 per barrel. However, investors should be aware of the risks posed by a potential global economic recession and the ongoing war in Iran.

Additional thoughts on the war in Iran

The war in Iran is a significant wildcard for the oil market. If the war escalates, it could lead to a major disruption in oil supplies, which would send prices soaring. However, it is also possible that the war will be resolved quickly, with minimal impact on the oil market.

Investors should closely monitor the situation in Iran and be prepared to adjust their positions accordingly.


I am deeply saddened by any war and the conflicts happening around the world. My heart goes out to all those who have been affected by this violence.

I know that words alone cannot heal the pain of those who have lost loved ones or been displaced from their homes. However, I want to express my solidarity with all those who are suffering and to let them know that they are not alone.

I believe that peace and understanding are essential for a better future. I hope that we can find a way to resolve these conflicts peacefully and build a more just and equitable world for all.

This being said, coming back to our analysis, good luck everyone in your financial decisions.