Paytm (One 97 Communications) has officially crossed the ₹1,050 resistance zone — a key psychological and technical level. With rising volumes, a powerful uptrend, and its first-ever positive operating cash flow, the question is:
Is this the beginning of a long-term turnaround, or another momentum trade nearing exhaustion?
Let’s break it down.
📊 Shareholding Breakdown (as of June 2025)
Promoters: 0% — no founder holding
FIIs: 54.87% — strong institutional presence
DIIs: 15.83%
Public: 12.22%
🔍 Insight: The company is fully institutionally driven. No promoter skin in the game means short-term thinking could dominate unless core numbers improve consistently.
📉 Financial Performance (FY25 vs FY24)
Metric FY25 FY24 Change
Revenue ₹6,900 Cr ₹9,978 Cr 🔻 -30%
Net Loss ₹664 Cr ₹1,422 Cr ✅ Improved
Operating Profit ₹44 Cr ₹-907 Cr ✅ Positive
Operating Cash Flow ₹651 Cr Negative ✅ First time positive
⚠️ Note: The revenue decline was largely driven by the RBI’s clampdown on Paytm Payments Bank, impacting GMV and merchant payments. Despite this, cost control and business model optimization have narrowed losses.
🌐 Market Landscape
India’s digital payments market is projected to reach $156B by 2025, and $990B by 2032, growing at ~30% CAGR
Paytm remains a leader in merchant QR and Soundbox deployments
Competing with PhonePe, Google Pay, and BharatPe, but continues to differentiate with offline innovation and embedded lending
🔮 Analysts' Outlook:
Bernstein sees 23% upside from current levels
Most houses expect break-even by FY26, profit in FY27
📈 Technical Analysis – Breakout in Motion
Weekly & Monthly Chart Highlights:
✅ Breakout above ₹1,050 confirms strength
✅ Sustained higher highs & higher lows structure
✅ Volume increasing alongside price — a strong technical signal
✅ Stock trading well above 200 EMA
Level Value
CMP ₹1,051.05
Support ₹950–980
Resistance ₹1,120–1,180 (next target zone)
RSI 64 (healthy, not overbought)
📍 If the stock sustains above ₹1,050 with strong volume, it may move swiftly toward ₹1,120+.
📉 If it dips below ₹980 again, a retest of the trendline support may follow — keep trailing your stop losses.
💬 Real Talk: Can You Earn 2–5% Per Month?
Let’s be honest. 2–5% monthly returns aren’t impossible — but they’re not handed out either.
You’ll need:
✅ The right mindset
✅ Strong risk management
✅ Patience, not panic
✅ Real learning, not shortcuts
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a get-disciplined-slowly-and-grow-consistently path.
Time invested in learning > Money invested too early.
📝 Final Take
Paytm has broken a critical resistance. The fundamentals are catching up slowly. It's still not a “buy and forget” stock — but it’s now a "watch and ride with caution" setup.
🔁 Traders: Tight trailing stop. Momentum is your friend, not your excuse.
🧠 Investors: Wait for consistent profitability or accumulate slowly with awareness of risks.
Would you chase this breakout — or wait for confirmation above ₹1,120?
📬 Want More?
👉 Follow me here for honest, data-driven stock breakdowns
📩 Subscribe to my free newsletter — every week I share research, setups, and mindset hacks for traders & investors alike.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Is this the beginning of a long-term turnaround, or another momentum trade nearing exhaustion?
Let’s break it down.
📊 Shareholding Breakdown (as of June 2025)
Promoters: 0% — no founder holding
FIIs: 54.87% — strong institutional presence
DIIs: 15.83%
Public: 12.22%
🔍 Insight: The company is fully institutionally driven. No promoter skin in the game means short-term thinking could dominate unless core numbers improve consistently.
📉 Financial Performance (FY25 vs FY24)
Metric FY25 FY24 Change
Revenue ₹6,900 Cr ₹9,978 Cr 🔻 -30%
Net Loss ₹664 Cr ₹1,422 Cr ✅ Improved
Operating Profit ₹44 Cr ₹-907 Cr ✅ Positive
Operating Cash Flow ₹651 Cr Negative ✅ First time positive
⚠️ Note: The revenue decline was largely driven by the RBI’s clampdown on Paytm Payments Bank, impacting GMV and merchant payments. Despite this, cost control and business model optimization have narrowed losses.
🌐 Market Landscape
India’s digital payments market is projected to reach $156B by 2025, and $990B by 2032, growing at ~30% CAGR
Paytm remains a leader in merchant QR and Soundbox deployments
Competing with PhonePe, Google Pay, and BharatPe, but continues to differentiate with offline innovation and embedded lending
🔮 Analysts' Outlook:
Bernstein sees 23% upside from current levels
Most houses expect break-even by FY26, profit in FY27
📈 Technical Analysis – Breakout in Motion
Weekly & Monthly Chart Highlights:
✅ Breakout above ₹1,050 confirms strength
✅ Sustained higher highs & higher lows structure
✅ Volume increasing alongside price — a strong technical signal
✅ Stock trading well above 200 EMA
Level Value
CMP ₹1,051.05
Support ₹950–980
Resistance ₹1,120–1,180 (next target zone)
RSI 64 (healthy, not overbought)
📍 If the stock sustains above ₹1,050 with strong volume, it may move swiftly toward ₹1,120+.
📉 If it dips below ₹980 again, a retest of the trendline support may follow — keep trailing your stop losses.
💬 Real Talk: Can You Earn 2–5% Per Month?
Let’s be honest. 2–5% monthly returns aren’t impossible — but they’re not handed out either.
You’ll need:
✅ The right mindset
✅ Strong risk management
✅ Patience, not panic
✅ Real learning, not shortcuts
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a get-disciplined-slowly-and-grow-consistently path.
Time invested in learning > Money invested too early.
📝 Final Take
Paytm has broken a critical resistance. The fundamentals are catching up slowly. It's still not a “buy and forget” stock — but it’s now a "watch and ride with caution" setup.
🔁 Traders: Tight trailing stop. Momentum is your friend, not your excuse.
🧠 Investors: Wait for consistent profitability or accumulate slowly with awareness of risks.
Would you chase this breakout — or wait for confirmation above ₹1,120?
📬 Want More?
👉 Follow me here for honest, data-driven stock breakdowns
📩 Subscribe to my free newsletter — every week I share research, setups, and mindset hacks for traders & investors alike.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Started like everyone else — chasing trends, ignoring risk.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Started like everyone else — chasing trends, ignoring risk.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Learned the hard way that survival beats prediction.
Now I share structured equity views and hedged options plays using Renko and macro context — built for consistency, not dopamine.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.