For the last 4 years (2020-2024), we have been in a narrow band where--generally speaking--SPY and QQQ have performed comparably. 2022 is the notable exception, where inflation increased rapidly and QQQ underperformed SPY.
For the prior 12 years before that (2008-2020), QQQ outperformed SPY handedly. Inflation was low. Interest rates were held at ~0%.
When you overlap the last 16 year channel with the last 4 years horizontal band it becomes clear that one (or both!) of these trends will break down.
Option 1: Inflation is under control, and the last 16 year channel is sustained. 4-year trend breaks.
Option 2: Inflation remains in limbo, and we stay in the new 2-year horizontal channel; 16-year trend breaks.
Option 3: Inflation is rampant, and QQQ underperforms SPY. Both trends broken.
What's it going to be?
For the prior 12 years before that (2008-2020), QQQ outperformed SPY handedly. Inflation was low. Interest rates were held at ~0%.
When you overlap the last 16 year channel with the last 4 years horizontal band it becomes clear that one (or both!) of these trends will break down.
Option 1: Inflation is under control, and the last 16 year channel is sustained. 4-year trend breaks.
Option 2: Inflation remains in limbo, and we stay in the new 2-year horizontal channel; 16-year trend breaks.
Option 3: Inflation is rampant, and QQQ underperforms SPY. Both trends broken.
What's it going to be?
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.