IPO Price Respected — Now Coiling for a Major Breakout?

🔍 Chart Context & Structure
Since its listing, SBI Cards & Payment Services Ltd (NSE: SBICARD) has been forming a massive accumulation base on the weekly chart — with an iron-clad support zone around ₹650. Over the last 3.5 years, the stock never closed below this IPO zone, signaling strong institutional confidence and long-term investor conviction.

Now, after multiple failed attempts, price is retesting the crucial ₹930–₹972 resistance band — a level that previously triggered sharp rejections. But this time, the setup is different:

✅ Momentum is building with a consistent series of higher lows.

✅ The structure now hints at a rounding bottom formation.

✅ Volume is supportive (if visible), and sentiment around financials is shifting positive.

📊 Technical Zones to Watch
Zone Relevance
🔵 ₹660–₹715 Strong base zone (IPO support + demand cluster)
🟣 ₹930–₹972 Historical supply zone (tested 3rd time now)
🟠 ₹1,130–₹1,150 Minor resistance, could break quickly post breakout
🟡 ₹1,272 – ₹1,440 Fibonacci targets (1.272–1.618 extension)
🔴 ₹1,916 Final positional target (2.618 Fib extension from pandemic low)

🌐 The Macro Tailwinds
💳 Credit card usage in India is booming – penetration is still low compared to global norms, but monthly user growth is accelerating.

🏛️ Government is actively promoting digital payments – a key pillar in India’s fintech roadmap.

📈 Financialization of Indian households – from cash hoarding to credit leverage, behavior is shifting.

🔁 Consumer spending is rebounding strongly post-COVID and SBI Cards is a direct proxy.

💡 Investor Psychology
Think of the ₹930–₹972 zone like a "psychological lid". Price got rejected here twice before — so this third approach carries both hesitation and anticipation. A weekly close above this zone would likely:

Trigger short-covering from swing sellers,

Attract momentum traders,

And validate long-term bulls waiting for confirmation.

📌 Trading Plan (Positional Swing)
Entry Trigger: Weekly close above ₹972

Initial Target: ₹1,130 → ₹1,192

Medium-Term Targets: ₹1,272 → ₹1,343 → ₹1,440

Long-Term Target: ₹1,916

Stop-Loss (Weekly): Close below ₹880

Holding Period: 6 months to 2 years depending on breakout strength

🧠 Final Thought
"Not closing below IPO levels for over 3 years in a volatile mid-cap is not random — it's informed accumulation."

With digital payment adoption surging and tailwinds aligning, SBI Cards may be quietly entering a new phase of price discovery. Watch the ₹972 zone closely — what was resistance may soon become the launchpad.