SPX, Going Short?
Aggiornato
After backtesting SPX from the 90s to current day, I realized there was a significant change in the way it was traded after the internet boom.
It used to look like a forex pair, with regular patterns occuring, but now, it's clear there is manipulation to weed out new money from seeing a long-term gain. It almost feels like talking about a dinosaur when realizing how fast cryptos see returns, but, I think that SPX has grown to a parabolic height, and is due for a large selloff for old money to get into new tech.
My analysis is simple: I see a sell divergence that has been setting itself up since 2018. The uptrend SPX has been in is just straight up since then, and I see it as just a matter of time before it happens.
The sell divergence is accurate all the down to H4.
My feeling is the end of March it will begin. They might aim for a nice round number to hit before, like 5k, and then begin the selloff.
It used to look like a forex pair, with regular patterns occuring, but now, it's clear there is manipulation to weed out new money from seeing a long-term gain. It almost feels like talking about a dinosaur when realizing how fast cryptos see returns, but, I think that SPX has grown to a parabolic height, and is due for a large selloff for old money to get into new tech.
My analysis is simple: I see a sell divergence that has been setting itself up since 2018. The uptrend SPX has been in is just straight up since then, and I see it as just a matter of time before it happens.
The sell divergence is accurate all the down to H4.
My feeling is the end of March it will begin. They might aim for a nice round number to hit before, like 5k, and then begin the selloff.
Commento
Thank you all for the feedback! After some valid scrutiny, mainly reliance on indicators and the market moving before you expect, I've made some changes to the beginning of the sell off.
The floating average true range is around 200 pips. Over the last several months, price traveled anywhere from an addition 50~100 pips over the ATR.
From where this months price began, 4758.11, price would only need to travel 241.89 points to hit 5k, or just under it's average additional fluctuation above the ATR.
That is purely technical speculation.
From a fundamental standpoint, one phrase comes to mind, "When others are greedy, be fearful, and when others are fearful, be greedy."
I'm hard pressed not to say that there is lurking fear in the markets to those in the know, but those who don't (and that tends to be the majority), will see sky high prices and perhaps foolishly have FOMO.
On prices journey to 5k, allow new buyers to enter the market, and at the milestone that would attract more buyers, simply wash them all out, scare any new buyer away, and input all your new gains at a much more attractive price: $3800~$4000.
However, who am I to say! I'm the little guy, throwing my best guess at the wall.
I wish everyone who commented on this post the best!
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