Coming to the end of my SPX/SPY/SPX500 commentary.
Aggiornato
I was about to publish this and then noticed a mistake which means we can go all the way up to that nice blue line without violating the count.
This is because I thought the current wave I am counting, labelled in the green text had a wave 3 shorter than wave 1. Turns out it is 0.6 larger. So we have no real limitation Except that max target 2435.7 on the chart. The thing against this target is the time period we have for this to play out.
We are still in what is called a Retrending B wave of a 4th wave. The wave had to go into a higher price range of the high of the 3rd wave, labelled green on the chart. It has now. Once we have a short pullback that wave ends, and we are on the last stretch.
The 5th of the 5th will have it's own Retrending B wave too.
The question I want answered for myself is how long will this run go. Because my original idea was that the market will run out of inertia within the next week. This is the same way I predicted the start of January was the end of a 2 week slump.
One idea for a forecast is that the market will play out the waves how it wants to. But past the end of this week there will be more pressure. So if we're looking for the maximum highs we have to hope this B wave lasts the week. Then the C wave will begin next week to start the beginning of the consolidation period and completing the 4th wave. And a bounce back up to the top of B will be a 5th completing a very large 5 wave pattern.
That is the perfect scenario. Because we will have confidence that price will poke ahead of the top of this current waves final high.
But charts are messy, as always we will see.
PS I will be starting to publish more charts on forex and commodities soon. If you like my analysis please follow and like.
This is because I thought the current wave I am counting, labelled in the green text had a wave 3 shorter than wave 1. Turns out it is 0.6 larger. So we have no real limitation Except that max target 2435.7 on the chart. The thing against this target is the time period we have for this to play out.
We are still in what is called a Retrending B wave of a 4th wave. The wave had to go into a higher price range of the high of the 3rd wave, labelled green on the chart. It has now. Once we have a short pullback that wave ends, and we are on the last stretch.
The 5th of the 5th will have it's own Retrending B wave too.
The question I want answered for myself is how long will this run go. Because my original idea was that the market will run out of inertia within the next week. This is the same way I predicted the start of January was the end of a 2 week slump.
One idea for a forecast is that the market will play out the waves how it wants to. But past the end of this week there will be more pressure. So if we're looking for the maximum highs we have to hope this B wave lasts the week. Then the C wave will begin next week to start the beginning of the consolidation period and completing the 4th wave. And a bounce back up to the top of B will be a 5th completing a very large 5 wave pattern.
That is the perfect scenario. Because we will have confidence that price will poke ahead of the top of this current waves final high.
But charts are messy, as always we will see.
PS I will be starting to publish more charts on forex and commodities soon. If you like my analysis please follow and like.
Trade chiuso manualmente
Away for the next week so I closed manually. I hope if you're still long it keeps going for you. For me, staying in and squeezing profit seems too risky. Good luck everyone.
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