Indice S&P 500Aggiornato Stock Market - Keep an Open Mind NDX SPX
Relatively, right now, it FEELS like we're extremely overbought. It's important to keep an open mind for all possible outcomes going forward. If history has taught us anything, what seems to be overbought can become much, much more, overbought.
The left chart shows SPX's price action from 1951 - 1984. In 1984, if you thought this was the perfect shorting opportunity, many traders would agree with you.
The middle chart shows price action of what happened after 1984 through 2000. You can see the market retested the top of this structure and went parabolic.
The right chart shows the Nasdaq 100 today. As you can see, it FEELS like we're at extremely overbought conditions and this thing could NOT possibly go up. However when you compare it to the middle chart of the SPX, this could just be the beginning of a parabolic surge.
This doesn't mean this isn't the top. The purpose of this analysis is to help other's keep an open mind to all possible outcomes. Especially those who are stubborn short and refuse to exit out of principle that this is a "scam" economy propped up by the fed.
If you feel this is a scam now, how would you feel if we surged like we did in the middle chart? The market doesn't care about anyone's feelings or even what's fair. The market is also now more influenced by the fed than ever. In the future, if past behavior is any indicator, they're likely to have even more influence.
Some argue that it's only 30-50 companies that are extremely overvalued propping up the entire market with price to earnings ratios that we have not seen before, indicative of a bubble. That's exactly how people felt in 1985 when we broke out of the structure seen in the middle chart. As you can see, their feelings didn't matter. The market doesn't care, and what you feel is a scam can get much, much more overbought. The market has always had a handful of stocks that were extremely overvalued and propping up the entire market.
This is not opinion, this is fact and the evidence is in front of your own two eyes. If you would like to short this market based on the fact that you feel it's overbought, you may have to hold onto your short for a long long time. Again, this could be the top, but if history is any indicator, it MIGHT not be. It's something to be mindful of, that's the only point I wanted to get across. Please trade responsibly and use a stop loss.
The left chart shows SPX's price action from 1951 - 1984. In 1984, if you thought this was the perfect shorting opportunity, many traders would agree with you.
The middle chart shows price action of what happened after 1984 through 2000. You can see the market retested the top of this structure and went parabolic.
The right chart shows the Nasdaq 100 today. As you can see, it FEELS like we're at extremely overbought conditions and this thing could NOT possibly go up. However when you compare it to the middle chart of the SPX, this could just be the beginning of a parabolic surge.
This doesn't mean this isn't the top. The purpose of this analysis is to help other's keep an open mind to all possible outcomes. Especially those who are stubborn short and refuse to exit out of principle that this is a "scam" economy propped up by the fed.
If you feel this is a scam now, how would you feel if we surged like we did in the middle chart? The market doesn't care about anyone's feelings or even what's fair. The market is also now more influenced by the fed than ever. In the future, if past behavior is any indicator, they're likely to have even more influence.
Some argue that it's only 30-50 companies that are extremely overvalued propping up the entire market with price to earnings ratios that we have not seen before, indicative of a bubble. That's exactly how people felt in 1985 when we broke out of the structure seen in the middle chart. As you can see, their feelings didn't matter. The market doesn't care, and what you feel is a scam can get much, much more overbought. The market has always had a handful of stocks that were extremely overvalued and propping up the entire market.
This is not opinion, this is fact and the evidence is in front of your own two eyes. If you would like to short this market based on the fact that you feel it's overbought, you may have to hold onto your short for a long long time. Again, this could be the top, but if history is any indicator, it MIGHT not be. It's something to be mindful of, that's the only point I wanted to get across. Please trade responsibly and use a stop loss.
Nota
Here is another view of what could happen in regards to Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.
My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.
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