S&P complex situation... thanks Powell
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Yesterday marked a 61% retracement of last week's drop. Normal retracement for a W 2, I think everyone was expecting this.
I am particularly interested in the clean hanging man candlestick (investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/040914/understanding-hanging-man-optimistic-candlestick-pattern.asp) it usually marks the end of an uptrend. Needs to be confirmed today.
I clearly shows that short sellers are ready to step in any time.The back to normal retail sales overshadowed the numbers in industrial production still in the -15%.
Bulls couldn't fill the island reversal gap orthe March retracement.
But they kept on the upward channel alive ( not on the future's as it was substantially broken last week).
My attention will focus for the rest of the week on :
1)India-China Tensions (my desk neighbor is Indian it seems more serious than what the media tells us).
2) Crude inventories still rising ( settlement date is the 22nd of June) non-commercial might want to exit their position if it keep rising
3) Initial claim - main focus - as initial claims are now becoming white collard permanent lays-off (as shown by French car-manufacturer Renault with a 1.5K engineers layoff), which will have a much bigger impact than blue collar furlough.
4)Spike in covid cases as china's capital is in crazy type of lock-down again (dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8425311/China-reimposes-travel-restrictions-amid-fresh-outbreak.html) I mean, look at the pictures, it looks like an apocalypse Hollywood movie
all bets are on but I keep my bear bias.
I am particularly interested in the clean hanging man candlestick (investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/040914/understanding-hanging-man-optimistic-candlestick-pattern.asp) it usually marks the end of an uptrend. Needs to be confirmed today.
I clearly shows that short sellers are ready to step in any time.The back to normal retail sales overshadowed the numbers in industrial production still in the -15%.
Bulls couldn't fill the island reversal gap orthe March retracement.
But they kept on the upward channel alive ( not on the future's as it was substantially broken last week).
My attention will focus for the rest of the week on :
1)India-China Tensions (my desk neighbor is Indian it seems more serious than what the media tells us).
2) Crude inventories still rising ( settlement date is the 22nd of June) non-commercial might want to exit their position if it keep rising
3) Initial claim - main focus - as initial claims are now becoming white collard permanent lays-off (as shown by French car-manufacturer Renault with a 1.5K engineers layoff), which will have a much bigger impact than blue collar furlough.
4)Spike in covid cases as china's capital is in crazy type of lock-down again (dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8425311/China-reimposes-travel-restrictions-amid-fresh-outbreak.html) I mean, look at the pictures, it looks like an apocalypse Hollywood movie
all bets are on but I keep my bear bias.
Nota
On COVID:businessinsider.com/beijing-suspends-school-expecting-second-coronavirus-wave-2020-6
If this is as true as the situation in December and seeing the measures they put in place it could be much worse than 50 cases per day .
On lay-offs:
Remember that airlines which received US government financial support need to keep their staff until 1st of October ... but they plan massive layoffs as soon as they are allowed to...
cnbc.com/2020/06/09/airline-employees-wrestle-with-voluntary-separation-leave.html
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