SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?
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SPX
1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks.
2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from here to 2147 - the market will test risk sentiment - if bulls win we will then move higher past 2194 previous highs, and the bull trend continues, but imo 80% most likely bears will win and we will break through 2147 and move to AT LEAST 1990.
3. IMO a daily and weekly close BELOW 2140 means selling is RISK-LESS as given this set up there will be no more bids until we hit 1990 (as shown by the price action and empty/bidless space).
- More aggressive sellers will sell here at 2182, risk-free sellers will wait to sell on the weekly close below 2140.
1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks.
2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from here to 2147 - the market will test risk sentiment - if bulls win we will then move higher past 2194 previous highs, and the bull trend continues, but imo 80% most likely bears will win and we will break through 2147 and move to AT LEAST 1990.
3. IMO a daily and weekly close BELOW 2140 means selling is RISK-LESS as given this set up there will be no more bids until we hit 1990 (as shown by the price action and empty/bidless space).
- More aggressive sellers will sell here at 2182, risk-free sellers will wait to sell on the weekly close below 2140.
Nota
UPDATE:1. Pretty obvious but just wanted to say the market is moving in 2wk levels, so IF the SPX doesnt reach the 2206 or 0.55% increase from 2194 previous highs by the end of august then the bear leg is confirmed and we will move lower from there - shorts until then still have risk capped at 2206 imo, so still safe with small positions.. id say 25% short here, then 50% short at Aug end confirmation and 25% short at 2140 weekly close below,
Nota
Update:1. Post hawkiish fed - if you didnt get short on the fake bull move higher to 2190 post-yellen, i suggest waiting to see if we can squeeze there again next week (the last week of the bull imo)
2. Alternatively if you dont want to miss the break lower, here is still 1% above previous ATH so still good to short.
3. I will add shorts on a daily close below 2140 as the bear is confirmed.
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