Pump Up The Jam
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"Pump up the jam, pump it up
While your feet are stompin'
And the jam is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the party going on the dance floor
Seek us that's where the party's at
And you'll find out if you're too bad."
Happy Friday guys! Sorry for the late post today. Let's get right into our SPY analysis:
It was another convincing overnight pump on more "Stimulus Optimism." The consistent sentiment here is don't worry, we have your back, stay, and keep playing, please don't leave. But, what I see is the Government, the FED, Treasury, Corporate Buy-Back's, and the Media, all sitting at the casino table, and no one else is there. They're playing with their own chips, and hoping appearances will be enough to entice you back into lose your money. It's a convincing show, but not to me.
We're sitting at the upper Bollinger Band on the daily, around 345.50, leaving lots of room to the downside if sentiment shifts. The bulls need to hold the Green line resistance today into the close, as earnings next week could be ugly. I wonder if the "stimulus deal" will come exactly as we're seeing weak earnings and jobs data next week, my guess is yes. But, like I said before, it could also be a sell the news event, which could prove catastrophic for the bullish continuation thesis, if it plays out this way.
I've seen lately some traders are expecting an Inverse Head and Shoulders to complete in the near term. I understand what they're seeing, and while I've learned that anything is possible in this market, and you have to consider new information, and price action every day, I don't agree with this thesis. Given the untidy price action in a seemingly controlled market, I see the opposite playing out on a larger scale, with far greater definition. The neckline is not at 340 imo, it's at 300, and if this head and shoulders plays out, we're going all the way down to 250 before we find real support. Does this sound more or less likely than the bullish thesis? You have to decide for yourself guys.
I expect the Green line (resistance) to act a gravity today, pulling the price back down below, and possibly as low as the 50 Day MA, and 21 Day EMA, once again. As I mentioned before if those supports break, this whole thing is coming down like a house of cards. I don't see us closing above the Green line resistance for a second day in a row. This would mean a weekly break of the Green line, which is a tough feat for the bulls.
Good luck today guys, thanks for your time, and I hope everyone has a fantastic weekend! Cheers, Michael.
While your feet are stompin'
And the jam is pumpin'
Look at here the crowd is jumpin'
Pump it up a little more
Get the party going on the dance floor
Seek us that's where the party's at
And you'll find out if you're too bad."
Happy Friday guys! Sorry for the late post today. Let's get right into our SPY analysis:
It was another convincing overnight pump on more "Stimulus Optimism." The consistent sentiment here is don't worry, we have your back, stay, and keep playing, please don't leave. But, what I see is the Government, the FED, Treasury, Corporate Buy-Back's, and the Media, all sitting at the casino table, and no one else is there. They're playing with their own chips, and hoping appearances will be enough to entice you back into lose your money. It's a convincing show, but not to me.
We're sitting at the upper Bollinger Band on the daily, around 345.50, leaving lots of room to the downside if sentiment shifts. The bulls need to hold the Green line resistance today into the close, as earnings next week could be ugly. I wonder if the "stimulus deal" will come exactly as we're seeing weak earnings and jobs data next week, my guess is yes. But, like I said before, it could also be a sell the news event, which could prove catastrophic for the bullish continuation thesis, if it plays out this way.
I've seen lately some traders are expecting an Inverse Head and Shoulders to complete in the near term. I understand what they're seeing, and while I've learned that anything is possible in this market, and you have to consider new information, and price action every day, I don't agree with this thesis. Given the untidy price action in a seemingly controlled market, I see the opposite playing out on a larger scale, with far greater definition. The neckline is not at 340 imo, it's at 300, and if this head and shoulders plays out, we're going all the way down to 250 before we find real support. Does this sound more or less likely than the bullish thesis? You have to decide for yourself guys.
I expect the Green line (resistance) to act a gravity today, pulling the price back down below, and possibly as low as the 50 Day MA, and 21 Day EMA, once again. As I mentioned before if those supports break, this whole thing is coming down like a house of cards. I don't see us closing above the Green line resistance for a second day in a row. This would mean a weekly break of the Green line, which is a tough feat for the bulls.
Good luck today guys, thanks for your time, and I hope everyone has a fantastic weekend! Cheers, Michael.
Nota
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Nota
Looking very bullish as we head into the afternoon session. Still hovering around the upper Bollinger Band around 347, and sitting marginally above the .618 Fib (343.85), but picking up strength on the 5 minute. Low volume melt-up again today perhaps? We'll see...Nota
Trump just tweeted the color of his latest bowel movement. "Covid Relief Negotiations are moving along. Go Big!" I think what he really means, is go long.Nota
VIX UPDATE: Vix getting monkey hammered today, down 5% on the day, and now sitting below the 50 day MA (25.50) at 25.10, after kissing the 200 day MA on Tuesday at 29.80, off the back of Trumps negotiations tweet. We've now paired all losses, since, as if the tweet never happened. Notably, we've also now fallen below an important trend line support which formed mid August. Today's key trend level support is at 26.20. A close above this level keeps the short term bullish trend intact. At the same time, if we continue to see more selling, the next major support is at 21.50 at the previous low. I don't see this happening, particularly as I'm observing a quasi Inverse Head and Shoulders playing out in the Vix. Stay tuned..Nota
Trading comfortably above the 50 period MA on the 5m, seeing some strength as we approach power hour/final hour of trade for the week. Will we see fireworks today, or another short squeeze into the close? We'll see...Nota
Looking relatively overbought on the hourly RSI. Sitting above 70 at the moment, on nothing more than, "stimulus optimism." RSI starting to roll over, marginally. This has been very bullish price action this week, but it's feeling more and more like a bull trap.Nota
Okay guys, that's all she wrote. Today was the best week in stocks in 4 months. Super boring price action today, though. Another tight trading range like we saw yesterday, but most importantly, the bulls were able to keep us above the Green line resistance, and this is the first weekly close above the green line since we fell below the week of Sep 21st. This is even more bullish, and important to note. However, it's not unusual to see an outside reversal candle take us back below the Green line on the weekly, just as we jumped back above after 2 candles below. Also, we're only above the Green line for 2 days in a row. Only after we've broken out for 3+ days would I see this as confirmation of the bullish trend continuation. We'll have to see what happens on Monday.The Vix got smashed today (down around 5.5% on the day), and looks awfully weak with strong support at 21.50, way below the current level of 25. USD got hammered back down to 93 today, down .6% on the day. Crude down about 1.6%, Gold rallying a solid 2%, the 10 year traded mostly sideways for the week, sitting at about .777. Bitcoin had a solid day, up 1.4%, and an even better week. Crypto looking better and better as a store of value in this MMT nightmare we're witnessing.
Have a great weekend guys, thanks for your time, and I'll see you Monday. Cheers, Michael.
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