$TLT - 20 year US Treasury, possible support -
I'm huge ultra BULLISH on US treasuries currently, so please excuse my bias.
Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis...
1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915.
2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween, Jerome Powell, "top FED dude", has already said that interest will no longer get increased and that there's possibly three RATE CUTS this year 2024. Even if he said, "Rates will remain unchanged" is enough to make treasuries bounce back to even. (par value).
3. Looking at everything in Barron's most recent "Top Income Plays for 2024" from last week, US Treasuries now offer the most bang for buck interest rate 4.10% with the lowest risk, compared to every other income asset in that article. (i.e, Dividend stocks, muni bonds, REITS, preferred stocks, etc.,)
4. US treasuries are back by the full faith of the US Government.
5. There's now a website that tracks Congress women & men trades, capitol trades.com. And there's A LOT of them buying US Treasuries.
6. There's massive geopolitical risk right now and WW3 is now a word being used.
7. Bottomline: between the yield of +4% and the upside appreciation of treasuries being at the biggest discount in US History, I believe any pull back should bought.
8. COMPLIMENT OPTION STRATEGIES
A. You could buy 100 shares of TLT and the following are low risk option strategies to compliment your 100 shares of TLT.
i. Sell short term (30 days out) 1 call. If you buy 100 shares of TLT, then you can sell 1 covered call on TLT out of the money OTM, and take that premium and purchase another share of TLT. think "snow ball" effect. The strike I am selling on 1000 shares of TLT is Ten $98 strike TLT calls with 2/23 expiration. Then take that money and bought 10 additional shares of TLT.
ii. If you want to get fancy with this, you can also add to the above covered call BUY WRITE and do a VERTICAL PUT SPREAD, aka Credit Put Spread to add to the income (which adds to the "Income Snow Ball" of something that is appreciating. Mo Money Mo Money!
a. Sell $90 strike Put on TLT, 30 days out
b. Buy $87 stake Put on TLT,, same exp, to cover your short put.
c. This produces an extra $200 which you could spend on blow (or groceries) or you can buy 2 more shares of TLT. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! thats capital generating income, that's generating income, being used to buy more of the thing that's appreciating in value, that's also generating income. THAT'S A LOT OF CHEDDAR!!
After one month, THEN REPEAT. :)
Not in any specific order, however here are all the factors in this thesis...
1. Interest rates have dramatically increased since Jan 2021, and the overall bond market, including treasuries, had its worst 2 years on record, going back to 1915.
2. Since Nov 2022 just after Halloween, Jerome Powell, "top FED dude", has already said that interest will no longer get increased and that there's possibly three RATE CUTS this year 2024. Even if he said, "Rates will remain unchanged" is enough to make treasuries bounce back to even. (par value).
3. Looking at everything in Barron's most recent "Top Income Plays for 2024" from last week, US Treasuries now offer the most bang for buck interest rate 4.10% with the lowest risk, compared to every other income asset in that article. (i.e, Dividend stocks, muni bonds, REITS, preferred stocks, etc.,)
4. US treasuries are back by the full faith of the US Government.
5. There's now a website that tracks Congress women & men trades, capitol trades.com. And there's A LOT of them buying US Treasuries.
6. There's massive geopolitical risk right now and WW3 is now a word being used.
7. Bottomline: between the yield of +4% and the upside appreciation of treasuries being at the biggest discount in US History, I believe any pull back should bought.
8. COMPLIMENT OPTION STRATEGIES
A. You could buy 100 shares of TLT and the following are low risk option strategies to compliment your 100 shares of TLT.
i. Sell short term (30 days out) 1 call. If you buy 100 shares of TLT, then you can sell 1 covered call on TLT out of the money OTM, and take that premium and purchase another share of TLT. think "snow ball" effect. The strike I am selling on 1000 shares of TLT is Ten $98 strike TLT calls with 2/23 expiration. Then take that money and bought 10 additional shares of TLT.
ii. If you want to get fancy with this, you can also add to the above covered call BUY WRITE and do a VERTICAL PUT SPREAD, aka Credit Put Spread to add to the income (which adds to the "Income Snow Ball" of something that is appreciating. Mo Money Mo Money!
a. Sell $90 strike Put on TLT, 30 days out
b. Buy $87 stake Put on TLT,, same exp, to cover your short put.
c. This produces an extra $200 which you could spend on blow (or groceries) or you can buy 2 more shares of TLT. Weeeeeeeeeeeeee! thats capital generating income, that's generating income, being used to buy more of the thing that's appreciating in value, that's also generating income. THAT'S A LOT OF CHEDDAR!!
After one month, THEN REPEAT. :)
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