TSLA VolanX Earnings Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Bias (TEST)

🧠 VolanX Earnings Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Bias
🎯 Goal:
Capitalize on downside or neutral reaction to earnings with defined risk and IV crush protection.

🔻 Primary Trade: Bear Put Spread
Strategy: Buy Put at ATM, Sell Put at lower strike

Expiration: July 25, 2025

Structure:

Buy 330 Put

Sell 315 Put

Max Risk: Premium paid (e.g., $5–6 per spread)

Max Profit: ~$15 if TSLA closes ≤ 315

Breakeven: ~$325

📈 Why This Works:
Aligns with DSS projection ($317.74 30-day)

Short expiry captures earnings move + IV crush

Profits if stock stays below ~325 post-earnings

🟨 Alternative Trade: Neutral-to-Bearish Iron Condor
If expecting rangebound post-earnings:

Sell 340 Call / Buy 345 Call

Sell 315 Put / Buy 310 Put

Credit: ~$3.50–4.00

Max Risk: ~$1.50–2.00

Profit Zone: 315–340

Best if TSLA volatility collapses and price stays in a channel.

🧨 High-Risk, High-Reward: Put Ratio Backspread
Buy 2x 320 Puts

Sell 1x 330 Put

Cost: Small debit or credit

Profit: If TSLA tanks → big delta gain

Risk: Small near expiry if TSLA closes near 320–330

Use this only if expecting a big bearish surprise.

🔧 Risk Management:
Position size = max 1–2% of account

Avoid holding spreads past Jul 25 if IV collapses

Use alerts around 330 / 325 / 317.5 for exits

🧠 DSS-Backed Tagline:
"With DSS projecting a controlled pullback and flow confirming overhead hedging, we favor bearish verticals and vol crush plays going into earnings."