UBS GROUP (UBSG): From Accumulation to Action

1 mar

UBS GROUP (UBSG): UBSG

The banking sector has experienced significant turbulence over the past years, which has not spared UBS Group from Switzerland. Please note, this analysis is presented in Swiss Francs, not dollars, as we're examining it from the Swiss stock exchange perspective. Unusually, we're delving into the monthly chart here, where it's evident that we've been in an accumulation phase since 2008, lasting about 15 years with no significant progress. This is the second time we've broken out, but the first time we're sustaining levels above this zone for an extended period.



Our analysis starts at the all-time low of 7 CHF (Swiss Francs), also coinciding with the COVID-19 low, from which we've seen a completed 5-wave cycle. If our foresight holds, we believe the peak at 26.55 CHF marks the top. Following this, we anticipate forming a Wave A, an overshooting Wave B, and then a Wave C that drops below Wave A for a Wave (2) correction. This correction is expected to retrace between 50% and 61.8%, aligning with the notion that Wave 2 often reaches the level of the subordinate Wave 4, situated right at or slightly below the 61.8% mark.

With the stop-loss set below these two potential outcomes and within the outlined blue support zone, we foresee a significant rise for Wave (3). This wave is typically the longest or at least not the shortest of the three impulse waves, leading us to anticipate a climb to at least 48 CHF. Our course of action is to wait, assess how the scenario unfolds, and potentially scale into positions earlier. This remains to be seen, and we'll continue monitoring and keep you updated on developments.