Daily 4XSetUps - UKOIL Terrain -1.30% Yesterday & Today +1.12%

2025/01/09
Daily 4XSetUps - UKOIL Terrain -1.30% Yesterday And Today +1.12%
“this week tends to be sideways - bullish ups and bearish downs!
is this the short-term (un) calm before the medium-term storm?”



"Important oil producer Saudi Arabia continues its efforts to support oil prices on the global market. These have reached their highest level in three months," as Bloomberg reported at the beginning of the week. This should also be noticeable at the gas pumps. Oil prices are currently at their highest level in three months, both in the USA and here in Europe (here in Germany). Traders and/or investors appear to have maintained something of a support price zone at $70 over the past few months. Which is also conveyed by the very good technical chart picture! Or? As such, bulls are likely to welcome the tailwinds in the UKOIL as the leading OPEC country is even set to raise crude oil prices for customers in Asia next month. For several months now, efforts by major oil producers to keep supply tight have been supporting oil prices. Recently, OPEC+ postponed plans to increase production again. States in the OPEC oil cartel have joined forces with other important producing states such as Russia.

A decision by outgoing US President Joe Biden is also keeping the oil market busy this week, if I'm not mistaken - I'm misinterpreting the context. Because two weeks before his successor Donald Trump took office, Biden imposed a ban on drilling for oil and gas in a vast area off US coasts. The ban applies along the entire Atlantic coast, the Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific coast from Mexico to Canada and parts of the coast of Alaska. Which, of course, is likely to drive up the price of oil - because supply is being reduced. And therefore green energy should be subsidized. But what is fundamentally wrong is that only an oversupply ensures that us taxpayers and us consumers have cheap energy at their disposal every day - regardless of whether it is black or green energy. Which is why, in the run-up to the ban, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt spoke of a "shameful decision" aimed at "taking revenge on the American people". Which is why Trump, who had actually announced that he would unleash domestic production of fossil fuels, was likely to overturn the ban again if he was serious about "Drill baby drill!". So to have an oversupply of black oil produced from the USA so that the prices in the USA fall first for the Americans - and then the surplus can be sold worldwide cheaper than green energy from Europe, for example. But this is unlikely to happen until the second half of 2025 at the earliest, if at all; which is also one reason more for this long UKOIL 4XSetUp. Because Biden enacted the law based on a 1953 law that gives the US government the authority to exploit offshore resources. However, the law does not provide that a president can unilaterally lift a drilling ban without referring it to Congress. Further evidence of the disastrous energy policy of the US Democrats, in the form of a green energy policy, under the guise of democracy.

“I came to see that people’s greatest weaknesses are the flip sides of their greatest strengths.”
Ray Dalio

$87.92 : 2024/07/05 - 2nd Quarter 2024 High
$81.12 : 2024/10/07 - 3rd Quarter 2024 High
$76.97 : 2025/01/08 - last price action
$76.79 : 2024/06/04 - 2nd Quarter 2024 Low
$76.08 : 2024/11/05 - November 2024 High
$75.10 : 2024/08/05 - 3rd Quarter 2024 Low
$74.85 : 2024/12/31 - December 2024 High
$70.89 : 2024/12/06 - December 2024 Low
$70.74 : 2024/11/18 - November 2024 Low
$69.95 : 2024/10/01 - October 2024 Low
$68.71 : 2024/09/10 - Annual 2024 Low
The price action drives me crazy - as I wrote today in the headline. However, it is how it is - and/or Bloomberg wrote “Don't Be Fooled by Oil's Strong Start to 2025”. Which is why I don't want to go into today's current price action at this point - even though yesterday's bearish loss was recaptured by us bulls. The current terrain is hot - which is probably why there are daily bullish ups and/or bearish downs. But it may also be due to the algorithms of larger traders and/or investors, as Bloomberg suspects "Oil Algorithmic Traders Lose Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses". I don't know! I already formulated what I knew yesterday and/or the day before: In the coming days, bulls will need to maintain price action above the highs of the last two months. Because if the price action remains above $76.08 (2024/11/05 - November 2024 High) and/or even $74.85 (2024/12/31 - December 2024 High), the bulls will defend the territory by more or less $75? $80 for the month of January 2025 is a realistic, optimistic target for now! - and the bulls have clearly won the terrain today! Because we bulls are currently trying to defend the November 2024 high, from 2024/11/15 at $76.08 points. Right now the $78 is nearly. And not only that - if we hold this price action into the weekend, maybe next week we bulls could attack the 480? but don't get too euphoric! At first, the $75 needs to be defended in order to regain strength and/or faith to attack the upward trend line, which is today around $78.66.

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$88.00 : 2025/06/30 - Target Price
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$76.97 : 2025/01/08 - last price action
$76.19 : 2025/01/06 - Entry Price
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$70.00 : 2025/06/30 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron



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