US30 - New Analysis

My previous analysis worked out perfectly with both entry point and target. Here is my new US30 analysis?

Analysis of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index on 15-Minute Chart

Indicators Used:

• Moving Averages (MAs)
• Bollinger Bands
• Support and Resistance Levels
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
• Stochastic Oscillator
• Volume

Technical Analysis:

1. Moving Averages:
• Short-term (Red) and Long-term (Green) MAs: The short-term MA is below the long-term MA, indicating a bearish trend. The price is currently below both MAs, suggesting continued downward pressure.
• Price Action: The price is moving towards the short-term MA, which may act as resistance.
2. Bollinger Bands:
• Band Width: The bands are moderately wide, indicating moderate volatility. The price is near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
• Price Position: The price is near the lower band, indicating downward pressure but also a potential for a bounce back towards the middle band.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Immediate Resistance: Around 38,700 to 38,750, which has acted as resistance recently.
• Immediate Support: Around 38,500, which is a key level to watch for a potential bounce.
4. MACD:
• Histogram and Signal Line: The MACD histogram shows bearish momentum, and the MACD line is below the signal line, indicating continued downward pressure.
5. Stochastic Oscillator:
• Current Reading: The Stochastic Oscillator is moving upwards from the oversold region, indicating decreasing bearish momentum and potential for a short-term reversal.
6. Volume:
• Recent Activity: There is a slight increase in volume during the recent price movement, indicating some buying interest at lower levels.

Observations:

• Bearish Trend: Indicators suggest that the price is currently in a bearish trend, with potential for a further downward movement.
• Support Test: The price is testing the support level around 38,500, which will be crucial in determining the next move.
• Mixed Signals: While the MACD suggests continued bearish momentum, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates potential for a short-term reversal from the oversold region.

Best Trade Opportunity:

Trade Setup:

• Entry Point (Short): Consider entering a short position if the price fails to break above the resistance level at 38,700 and shows continued bearish momentum.
• Confirmation: Look for the price to stay below 38,700 with continued bearish signals in the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator.
• Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above the resistance level at 38,750 to minimize potential losses.
• Target: Aim for a target around the next significant support level at 38,300.

Alternative Long Trade Setup:

• Entry Point (Long): Consider entering a long position if the price sustains above the support level at 38,500 with confirmation of bullish signals.
• Confirmation: Look for sustained movement above 38,500 and a bullish crossover in the Stochastic Oscillator.
• Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the support level at 38,500.
• Target: Aim for a target around the recent resistance level at 38,800.

Confidence in the Trade:

Confidence Factors:

• Technical Confirmation: Multiple indicators suggest a potential bearish momentum, providing a structured trade setup.
• Support and Resistance: Clearly defined support and resistance levels provide a reliable framework for trade planning.
• Volume: Moderate volume during the recent price movement adds validity to the potential bearish continuation.

Factors to Monitor:

• Market News: Keep an eye on any significant economic news or events that might affect the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, such as earnings reports or economic data releases.
• Volume: Watch for sustained volume on the breakout for added confirmation of the trade direction.

Summary:

• Primary Trade: Short position below 38,700 with a target of 38,300.
• Alternative Trade: Long position above 38,500 with a target of 38,800.
• Confidence Level: Moderate, given the mixed signals and current bearish phase. Monitor the indicators closely for confirmation before entering the trade.