Following recent development on interest rates, I thought it was a good idea to look at carefully at a VERY LONG TERM PICTURE, which started in 1987 (3 months period)
Interesting to note the ongoing downtrend line resistance level which coincides, actually, roughly with the bottom of the clouds resistance area (around 3.33%) in this 3 months time frame. Clouds zone being between 3.33% and 3.87%
MONTHLY (M1)
TOP OF THE MONTHLY CLOUDS in an ongoing progress to be broken.
RSI converging to the upside
LAGGING LINE, above TS, KS and MBB... but still below the clouds
April closing level will validate or invalidate this breakout.
WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action (long white candle) triggered a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN which was even better than the Piercing line mentioned in my previous analysis, see related ideas below)
Indeed, the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.4150 % worked once again perfectly well in rejecting once again the downside breakout attempt.
So, in this weekly time frame, as long as, this level is not clearly broken, the picture remains supportive for higher levels towards 2.8750% (78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension ahead of the 3 months clouds resistance area previously mentioned (3.4650% being the highest level reached in October 2018.
RSI is @ 69.47
LAGGING LINE well above the clouds.
DAILY (D1)
Well above the clouds, TS, MBB and TS.
TS (Tenkan-Sen) @ 2.5880% being the new first support to look at very carefully ahead of MBB @ 2.5270 % and the most important, the KIJUN-SEN @ 2.4350%
RSI @ 68.90% (potential bearish divergence in progress, should be confirmed !)
LAGGING LINE far above the clouds.
IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME, a failure to hold and close above the former double & triple top (2.6420-2.6450) should be seen at leat as TACTICAL WARNING SIGNAL CALLING FOR A CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD BULL (YIELD) TREND ! and globally ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE 2.40% AREA WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED SCENARIO CALLING FOR HIGHER LEVELS
4 HOURS (H4)
Above all indicators, in an ongoing uptrend price action (higher highs and higher lows).
A cross under MBB would be the first warning signal calling for a short term tactical corrective reversal, the 4 hours support clouds area being between 2.53% and 2.49%, just over the DAILY KEY PIVOT SUPPORT @ 2.40%
Do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW (one of the best charting application available at the moment),please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 in your following list.
Many thanks in advance for your support.
Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW, please sign up on the following link (several plans available from basis, free of charge to more sophisticated, against payment) :
www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share…
IRONMAN8848 – Jean-Pierre Burki
Interesting to note the ongoing downtrend line resistance level which coincides, actually, roughly with the bottom of the clouds resistance area (around 3.33%) in this 3 months time frame. Clouds zone being between 3.33% and 3.87%
MONTHLY (M1)
TOP OF THE MONTHLY CLOUDS in an ongoing progress to be broken.
RSI converging to the upside
LAGGING LINE, above TS, KS and MBB... but still below the clouds
April closing level will validate or invalidate this breakout.
WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action (long white candle) triggered a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN which was even better than the Piercing line mentioned in my previous analysis, see related ideas below)
Indeed, the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.4150 % worked once again perfectly well in rejecting once again the downside breakout attempt.
So, in this weekly time frame, as long as, this level is not clearly broken, the picture remains supportive for higher levels towards 2.8750% (78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension ahead of the 3 months clouds resistance area previously mentioned (3.4650% being the highest level reached in October 2018.
RSI is @ 69.47
LAGGING LINE well above the clouds.
DAILY (D1)
Well above the clouds, TS, MBB and TS.
TS (Tenkan-Sen) @ 2.5880% being the new first support to look at very carefully ahead of MBB @ 2.5270 % and the most important, the KIJUN-SEN @ 2.4350%
RSI @ 68.90% (potential bearish divergence in progress, should be confirmed !)
LAGGING LINE far above the clouds.
IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME, a failure to hold and close above the former double & triple top (2.6420-2.6450) should be seen at leat as TACTICAL WARNING SIGNAL CALLING FOR A CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD BULL (YIELD) TREND ! and globally ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE 2.40% AREA WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED SCENARIO CALLING FOR HIGHER LEVELS
4 HOURS (H4)
Above all indicators, in an ongoing uptrend price action (higher highs and higher lows).
A cross under MBB would be the first warning signal calling for a short term tactical corrective reversal, the 4 hours support clouds area being between 2.53% and 2.49%, just over the DAILY KEY PIVOT SUPPORT @ 2.40%
Do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on TRADING VIEW (one of the best charting application available at the moment),please do not forget either to add IRONMAN8848 in your following list.
Many thanks in advance for your support.
Last but not least for those who do not have access to TRADING VIEW, please sign up on the following link (several plans available from basis, free of charge to more sophisticated, against payment) :
www.tradingview.com/gopro/?share…
IRONMAN8848 – Jean-Pierre Burki
