USDCAD passed the SMA100 - short

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USDCAD entered shot-term downtrend which is part of medium-term downtrend. I really like to play that kind of situations, because I know, that I have bigger chance of winning at that trade and even if I made wrong decision at shor-term trend analysis, I sometimes would be able to exit position with profit.
I guess we are somewhere at the 1/3 of short-term downtrend inside of channel, and the chart just passed SMA50 and SMA100 which is good news for us. I'm not fan of technical analysis, but guys that use it at trading could see HnS formation which, as far as I know, means trend reversal.
If I should guess, I would tell that our price on monday will go little up - maybe somewhere near SMA50 or SMA100, and then continue short-term downtrend to finally reach bottom of channel.
Of course situation in Syria create a need to watch all pairs with USD closely and briefly react and adapt to new circumstances.
Nota
On Monday I will watch how price behave and replan this trade. Right now it looks quite good, but if chart will go up with possibility to go to top boarder of channel I will definitely close shorts and reopen from channel top.
Beyond Technical AnalysisdowntrendForexpriceswingtradingsyriaTrend AnalysisUSDCADusdcadshort

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