Core and Headline CPI (Release Tomorrow Thurs 11th Jan 2024)
Core and Headline CPI
NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month)
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021?
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
I’ll update you tomorrow with the released figures
PUKA
NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month)
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021?
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
I’ll update you tomorrow with the released figures
PUKA
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